Forecast models from agencies like MetService indicate overnight lows for Wellington on September 15 near 9–11°C under partly cloudy skies and strengthening northerly winds, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 9°C and 10°C. Coastal location and variable wind patterns introduce uncertainty in minimum readings, as radiational cooling under clearer intervals could dip toward 8°C while persistent northerlies limit that potential. Historical September averages near 9–10°C provide context, yet short-term model spreads and local topography differentiate the leading outcomes. Updated guidance ahead of the overnight period will refine these probabilities as traders assess the balance between observed trends and forecast adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 15?
10°C 37%
7°C 27%
8°C 27%
9°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
5°C or below
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
27%
8°C
27%
9°C
27%
10°C
37%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
10°C 37%
7°C 27%
8°C 27%
9°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
5°C or below
$10 Vol.
1%
6°C
$10 Vol.
1%
7°C
$8 Vol.
27%
8°C
$0 Vol.
27%
9°C
$0 Vol.
27%
10°C
$0 Vol.
37%
11°C
$539 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
15°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like MetService indicate overnight lows for Wellington on September 15 near 9–11°C under partly cloudy skies and strengthening northerly winds, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 9°C and 10°C. Coastal location and variable wind patterns introduce uncertainty in minimum readings, as radiational cooling under clearer intervals could dip toward 8°C while persistent northerlies limit that potential. Historical September averages near 9–10°C provide context, yet short-term model spreads and local topography differentiate the leading outcomes. Updated guidance ahead of the overnight period will refine these probabilities as traders assess the balance between observed trends and forecast adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$614End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like MetService indicate overnight lows for Wellington on September 15 near 9–11°C under partly cloudy skies and strengthening northerly winds, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 9°C and 10°C. Coastal location and variable wind patterns introduce uncertainty in minimum readings, as radiational cooling under clearer intervals could dip toward 8°C while persistent northerlies limit that potential. Historical September averages near 9–10°C provide context, yet short-term model spreads and local topography differentiate the leading outcomes. Updated guidance ahead of the overnight period will refine these probabilities as traders assess the balance between observed trends and forecast adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$614End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies like MetService indicate overnight lows for Wellington on September 15 near 9–11°C under partly cloudy skies and strengthening northerly winds, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 9°C and 10°C. Coastal location and variable wind patterns introduce uncertainty in minimum readings, as radiational cooling under clearer intervals could dip toward 8°C while persistent northerlies limit that potential. Historical September averages near 9–10°C provide context, yet short-term model spreads and local topography differentiate the leading outcomes. Updated guidance ahead of the overnight period will refine these probabilities as traders assess the balance between observed trends and forecast adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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