Recent forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and private meteorology services indicate a clear, dry night ahead for Seattle with light northerly winds around 5 mph and minimal cloud cover, favoring radiative cooling under typical early-fall conditions. This setup supports overnight lows clustering near the 52–55°F range, consistent with the market’s tight grouping of implied probabilities around those bins and the seasonal average low of 53°F. Minor model differences in exact wind speed, dew-point depression, and the timing of any residual marine layer influence the spread between 52–53°F and 56–57°F outcomes. With no incoming fronts or significant moisture expected before dawn on the 16th, traders are weighting current ensemble guidance heavily while acknowledging small uncertainties in microscale cooling rates that could shift the recorded minimum by a degree or two.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seattle on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Seattle on September 16?
54-55°F 39%
45°F or below 34%
64°F or higher 33%
52-53°F 31%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
45°F or below
34%
46-47°F
8%
48-49°F
14%
50-51°F
16%
52-53°F
31%
54-55°F
39%
56-57°F
23%
58-59°F
15%
60-61°F
16%
62-63°F
30%
64°F or higher
33%
54-55°F 39%
45°F or below 34%
64°F or higher 33%
52-53°F 31%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
45°F or below
$0 Vol.
34%
46-47°F
$215 Vol.
8%
48-49°F
$236 Vol.
14%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
16%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
31%
54-55°F
$10 Vol.
39%
56-57°F
$44 Vol.
23%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
15%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
16%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
30%
64°F or higher
$0 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and private meteorology services indicate a clear, dry night ahead for Seattle with light northerly winds around 5 mph and minimal cloud cover, favoring radiative cooling under typical early-fall conditions. This setup supports overnight lows clustering near the 52–55°F range, consistent with the market’s tight grouping of implied probabilities around those bins and the seasonal average low of 53°F. Minor model differences in exact wind speed, dew-point depression, and the timing of any residual marine layer influence the spread between 52–53°F and 56–57°F outcomes. With no incoming fronts or significant moisture expected before dawn on the 16th, traders are weighting current ensemble guidance heavily while acknowledging small uncertainties in microscale cooling rates that could shift the recorded minimum by a degree or two.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$506End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and private meteorology services indicate a clear, dry night ahead for Seattle with light northerly winds around 5 mph and minimal cloud cover, favoring radiative cooling under typical early-fall conditions. This setup supports overnight lows clustering near the 52–55°F range, consistent with the market’s tight grouping of implied probabilities around those bins and the seasonal average low of 53°F. Minor model differences in exact wind speed, dew-point depression, and the timing of any residual marine layer influence the spread between 52–53°F and 56–57°F outcomes. With no incoming fronts or significant moisture expected before dawn on the 16th, traders are weighting current ensemble guidance heavily while acknowledging small uncertainties in microscale cooling rates that could shift the recorded minimum by a degree or two.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksea
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$506End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kseaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and private meteorology services indicate a clear, dry night ahead for Seattle with light northerly winds around 5 mph and minimal cloud cover, favoring radiative cooling under typical early-fall conditions. This setup supports overnight lows clustering near the 52–55°F range, consistent with the market’s tight grouping of implied probabilities around those bins and the seasonal average low of 53°F. Minor model differences in exact wind speed, dew-point depression, and the timing of any residual marine layer influence the spread between 52–53°F and 56–57°F outcomes. With no incoming fronts or significant moisture expected before dawn on the 16th, traders are weighting current ensemble guidance heavily while acknowledging small uncertainties in microscale cooling rates that could shift the recorded minimum by a degree or two.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions