The closely matched market odds around 31–36°C reflect substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for Guangzhou’s peak temperature on September 17, driven by variable steering patterns from the western Pacific subtropical high and potential moisture influx from the South China Sea. Recent model runs show modest spread in daytime maximums due to differences in simulated cloud cover, boundary-layer humidity, and urban heat-island amplification under light winds. Historical mid-September climatology for the region centers near 32–34°C, with occasional excursions above 35°C when ridging strengthens or below 31°C amid increased convective activity. Traders are weighting the next CMA and ECMWF updates, which will refine land-sea breeze timing and any incoming tropical disturbance signals before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on September 17?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 17?
35°C 36%
34°C 34%
33°C 20%
36°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
5%
31°C
10%
32°C
16%
33°C
20%
34°C
31%
35°C
36%
36°C
18%
37°C or higher
<1%
35°C 36%
34°C 34%
33°C 20%
36°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
27°C or below
$221 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
1%
29°C
$5 Vol.
1%
30°C
$12 Vol.
5%
31°C
$0 Vol.
10%
32°C
$5 Vol.
16%
33°C
$0 Vol.
20%
34°C
$68 Vol.
31%
35°C
$0 Vol.
36%
36°C
$0 Vol.
18%
37°C or higher
$57 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market odds around 31–36°C reflect substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for Guangzhou’s peak temperature on September 17, driven by variable steering patterns from the western Pacific subtropical high and potential moisture influx from the South China Sea. Recent model runs show modest spread in daytime maximums due to differences in simulated cloud cover, boundary-layer humidity, and urban heat-island amplification under light winds. Historical mid-September climatology for the region centers near 32–34°C, with occasional excursions above 35°C when ridging strengthens or below 31°C amid increased convective activity. Traders are weighting the next CMA and ECMWF updates, which will refine land-sea breeze timing and any incoming tropical disturbance signals before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$369End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market odds around 31–36°C reflect substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for Guangzhou’s peak temperature on September 17, driven by variable steering patterns from the western Pacific subtropical high and potential moisture influx from the South China Sea. Recent model runs show modest spread in daytime maximums due to differences in simulated cloud cover, boundary-layer humidity, and urban heat-island amplification under light winds. Historical mid-September climatology for the region centers near 32–34°C, with occasional excursions above 35°C when ridging strengthens or below 31°C amid increased convective activity. Traders are weighting the next CMA and ECMWF updates, which will refine land-sea breeze timing and any incoming tropical disturbance signals before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$369End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market odds around 31–36°C reflect substantial uncertainty in ensemble forecasts for Guangzhou’s peak temperature on September 17, driven by variable steering patterns from the western Pacific subtropical high and potential moisture influx from the South China Sea. Recent model runs show modest spread in daytime maximums due to differences in simulated cloud cover, boundary-layer humidity, and urban heat-island amplification under light winds. Historical mid-September climatology for the region centers near 32–34°C, with occasional excursions above 35°C when ridging strengthens or below 31°C amid increased convective activity. Traders are weighting the next CMA and ECMWF updates, which will refine land-sea breeze timing and any incoming tropical disturbance signals before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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