Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to partly to mostly sunny conditions with a 40-50% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on September 17, limiting peak heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Easterly flow around 5-10 mph, high boundary-layer moisture, and surface dew points near 74°F support scattered convection that historically caps highs 2-4°F below clear-sky potential in the Houston area. With recent days reaching 93-97°F under stronger subsidence, the shift toward greater instability explains why trader consensus clusters in the 86-89°F range rather than the mid-90s. Forecast uncertainty remains tied to the timing and coverage of storms, with updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings expected to refine the daily maximum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on September 17?
Highest temperature in Houston on September 17?
86-87°F 30%
88-89°F 28%
90-91°F 20%
94-95°F 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
79°F or below
5%
80-81°F
5%
82-83°F
7%
84-85°F
11%
86-87°F
30%
88-89°F
28%
90-91°F
20%
92-93°F
10%
94-95°F
17%
96-97°F
5%
98°F or higher
7%
86-87°F 30%
88-89°F 28%
90-91°F 20%
94-95°F 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
79°F or below
$0 Vol.
5%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
5%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
7%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
11%
86-87°F
$407 Vol.
30%
88-89°F
$22 Vol.
28%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
20%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
10%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
17%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
5%
98°F or higher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to partly to mostly sunny conditions with a 40-50% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on September 17, limiting peak heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Easterly flow around 5-10 mph, high boundary-layer moisture, and surface dew points near 74°F support scattered convection that historically caps highs 2-4°F below clear-sky potential in the Houston area. With recent days reaching 93-97°F under stronger subsidence, the shift toward greater instability explains why trader consensus clusters in the 86-89°F range rather than the mid-90s. Forecast uncertainty remains tied to the timing and coverage of storms, with updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings expected to refine the daily maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$297End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to partly to mostly sunny conditions with a 40-50% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on September 17, limiting peak heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Easterly flow around 5-10 mph, high boundary-layer moisture, and surface dew points near 74°F support scattered convection that historically caps highs 2-4°F below clear-sky potential in the Houston area. With recent days reaching 93-97°F under stronger subsidence, the shift toward greater instability explains why trader consensus clusters in the 86-89°F range rather than the mid-90s. Forecast uncertainty remains tied to the timing and coverage of storms, with updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings expected to refine the daily maximum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$297End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to partly to mostly sunny conditions with a 40-50% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on September 17, limiting peak heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Easterly flow around 5-10 mph, high boundary-layer moisture, and surface dew points near 74°F support scattered convection that historically caps highs 2-4°F below clear-sky potential in the Houston area. With recent days reaching 93-97°F under stronger subsidence, the shift toward greater instability explains why trader consensus clusters in the 86-89°F range rather than the mid-90s. Forecast uncertainty remains tied to the timing and coverage of storms, with updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings expected to refine the daily maximum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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