Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show strong consensus for a mostly sunny day in Paris on September 15 with southwesterly flow and warm advection supporting a daily maximum near 32°C. This aligns with the market's leading 48.5% implied probability for 32°C, followed by 31°C and 33°C outcomes. Low precipitation chances and moderate humidity under building high pressure favor efficient daytime heating, though minor model spread in exact peak timing and boundary-layer mixing introduces uncertainty between 31–33°C. Historical September averages near 22°C underscore the anomalous warmth, and the next high-resolution model runs plus official Météo-France guidance will likely refine resolution odds ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on September 15?
Highest temperature in Paris on September 15?
32°C 49%
31°C 24%
33°C 21%
30°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
26°C or below
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
3%
30°C
7%
31°C
24%
32°C
49%
33°C
21%
34°C
5%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
2%
32°C 49%
31°C 24%
33°C 21%
30°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
26°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
27°C
$10 Vol.
1%
28°C
$25 Vol.
2%
29°C
$122 Vol.
3%
30°C
$359 Vol.
7%
31°C
$1,021 Vol.
24%
32°C
$1,878 Vol.
49%
33°C
$612 Vol.
21%
34°C
$699 Vol.
5%
35°C
$10 Vol.
2%
36°C or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show strong consensus for a mostly sunny day in Paris on September 15 with southwesterly flow and warm advection supporting a daily maximum near 32°C. This aligns with the market's leading 48.5% implied probability for 32°C, followed by 31°C and 33°C outcomes. Low precipitation chances and moderate humidity under building high pressure favor efficient daytime heating, though minor model spread in exact peak timing and boundary-layer mixing introduces uncertainty between 31–33°C. Historical September averages near 22°C underscore the anomalous warmth, and the next high-resolution model runs plus official Météo-France guidance will likely refine resolution odds ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Volume
$4,751End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show strong consensus for a mostly sunny day in Paris on September 15 with southwesterly flow and warm advection supporting a daily maximum near 32°C. This aligns with the market's leading 48.5% implied probability for 32°C, followed by 31°C and 33°C outcomes. Low precipitation chances and moderate humidity under building high pressure favor efficient daytime heating, though minor model spread in exact peak timing and boundary-layer mixing introduces uncertainty between 31–33°C. Historical September averages near 22°C underscore the anomalous warmth, and the next high-resolution model runs plus official Météo-France guidance will likely refine resolution odds ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,751End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models show strong consensus for a mostly sunny day in Paris on September 15 with southwesterly flow and warm advection supporting a daily maximum near 32°C. This aligns with the market's leading 48.5% implied probability for 32°C, followed by 31°C and 33°C outcomes. Low precipitation chances and moderate humidity under building high pressure favor efficient daytime heating, though minor model spread in exact peak timing and boundary-layer mixing introduces uncertainty between 31–33°C. Historical September averages near 22°C underscore the anomalous warmth, and the next high-resolution model runs plus official Météo-France guidance will likely refine resolution odds ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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