Recent forecast guidance from Chinese meteorological sources and international models points to clear skies and southerly winds over Qingdao on September 15, supporting overnight radiative cooling moderated by a warm air mass and coastal effects, with expected lows near 21–24 °C. This underpins the tight market-implied odds between 14 °C or below (38 %) and 24 °C or higher (35 %), reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum amid possible variations in cloud cover or wind strength. Historical September baselines average around 18 °C lows, while current high-pressure stability and low precipitation risk favor milder readings closer to the upper end of recent model consensus. Final station observations will determine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Qingdao on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Qingdao on September 15?
24°C or higher 80%
14°C or below 44%
19°C 38%
16°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
14°C or below
44%
15°C
22%
16°C
23%
17°C
22%
18°C
22%
19°C
38%
20°C
20%
21°C
3%
22°C
3%
23°C
13%
24°C or higher
80%
24°C or higher 80%
14°C or below 44%
19°C 38%
16°C 23%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
44%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
23%
17°C
$0 Vol.
22%
18°C
$0 Vol.
22%
19°C
$10 Vol.
38%
20°C
$10 Vol.
20%
21°C
$10 Vol.
3%
22°C
$10 Vol.
3%
23°C
$10 Vol.
13%
24°C or higher
$10 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from Chinese meteorological sources and international models points to clear skies and southerly winds over Qingdao on September 15, supporting overnight radiative cooling moderated by a warm air mass and coastal effects, with expected lows near 21–24 °C. This underpins the tight market-implied odds between 14 °C or below (38 %) and 24 °C or higher (35 %), reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum amid possible variations in cloud cover or wind strength. Historical September baselines average around 18 °C lows, while current high-pressure stability and low precipitation risk favor milder readings closer to the upper end of recent model consensus. Final station observations will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$60End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from Chinese meteorological sources and international models points to clear skies and southerly winds over Qingdao on September 15, supporting overnight radiative cooling moderated by a warm air mass and coastal effects, with expected lows near 21–24 °C. This underpins the tight market-implied odds between 14 °C or below (38 %) and 24 °C or higher (35 %), reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum amid possible variations in cloud cover or wind strength. Historical September baselines average around 18 °C lows, while current high-pressure stability and low precipitation risk favor milder readings closer to the upper end of recent model consensus. Final station observations will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$60End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from Chinese meteorological sources and international models points to clear skies and southerly winds over Qingdao on September 15, supporting overnight radiative cooling moderated by a warm air mass and coastal effects, with expected lows near 21–24 °C. This underpins the tight market-implied odds between 14 °C or below (38 %) and 24 °C or higher (35 %), reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum amid possible variations in cloud cover or wind strength. Historical September baselines average around 18 °C lows, while current high-pressure stability and low precipitation risk favor milder readings closer to the upper end of recent model consensus. Final station observations will determine resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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