Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a maximum of 26–31°C on September 14 under east to northeast winds of force 3–4, with sunny intervals interrupted by morning and evening showers or isolated thunderstorms. International models show minor divergence, with some projecting afternoon peaks near 32°C if clearer skies allow greater solar heating, while others align closer to 30°C amid increased cloud cover or earlier precipitation. These small differences in timing and intensity of convective activity, combined with typical September humidity levels around 65–95%, create tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 30–32°C. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 14?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 14?
31°C 30%
32°C 27%
30°C 16%
29°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
14%
30°C
16%
31°C
30%
32°C
27%
33°C
13%
34°C
3%
35°C
5%
36°C or higher
1%
31°C 30%
32°C 27%
30°C 16%
29°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
26°C or below
$203 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$69 Vol.
1%
28°C
$6 Vol.
4%
29°C
$20 Vol.
14%
30°C
$64 Vol.
16%
31°C
$44 Vol.
30%
32°C
$135 Vol.
27%
33°C
$87 Vol.
13%
34°C
$312 Vol.
3%
35°C
$82 Vol.
5%
36°C or higher
$198 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a maximum of 26–31°C on September 14 under east to northeast winds of force 3–4, with sunny intervals interrupted by morning and evening showers or isolated thunderstorms. International models show minor divergence, with some projecting afternoon peaks near 32°C if clearer skies allow greater solar heating, while others align closer to 30°C amid increased cloud cover or earlier precipitation. These small differences in timing and intensity of convective activity, combined with typical September humidity levels around 65–95%, create tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 30–32°C. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,220End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a maximum of 26–31°C on September 14 under east to northeast winds of force 3–4, with sunny intervals interrupted by morning and evening showers or isolated thunderstorms. International models show minor divergence, with some projecting afternoon peaks near 32°C if clearer skies allow greater solar heating, while others align closer to 30°C amid increased cloud cover or earlier precipitation. These small differences in timing and intensity of convective activity, combined with typical September humidity levels around 65–95%, create tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 30–32°C. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,220End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate a maximum of 26–31°C on September 14 under east to northeast winds of force 3–4, with sunny intervals interrupted by morning and evening showers or isolated thunderstorms. International models show minor divergence, with some projecting afternoon peaks near 32°C if clearer skies allow greater solar heating, while others align closer to 30°C amid increased cloud cover or earlier precipitation. These small differences in timing and intensity of convective activity, combined with typical September humidity levels around 65–95%, create tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 30–32°C. Updated model runs and the next HKO briefing remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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