Northwest winds and a cooler air mass are driving the market's leading 20°C outcome for Toronto's September 14 high, with forecasts from multiple models converging on a maximum near 19–20°C under mostly clear skies. This follows a warmer weekend influenced by southerly flow, with the shift producing daytime highs well below the 22.4°C climatological average for the date. Recent model runs show limited variability, supporting the strong implied probability for 20°C while assigning lower odds to 21°C or 19°C. Updated guidance from Environment Canada and similar agencies over the next 24–48 hours will refine these temperature thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on September 14?
Highest temperature in Toronto on September 14?
20°C 49%
19°C 23%
21°C 20%
23°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
14°C or below
3%
15°C
4%
16°C
6%
17°C
7%
18°C
9%
19°C
23%
20°C
49%
21°C
20%
22°C
8%
23°C
13%
24°C or higher
8%
20°C 49%
19°C 23%
21°C 20%
23°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
15°C
$0 Vol.
4%
16°C
$0 Vol.
6%
17°C
$0 Vol.
7%
18°C
$76 Vol.
9%
19°C
$0 Vol.
23%
20°C
$252 Vol.
49%
21°C
$0 Vol.
20%
22°C
$4 Vol.
8%
23°C
$0 Vol.
13%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Northwest winds and a cooler air mass are driving the market's leading 20°C outcome for Toronto's September 14 high, with forecasts from multiple models converging on a maximum near 19–20°C under mostly clear skies. This follows a warmer weekend influenced by southerly flow, with the shift producing daytime highs well below the 22.4°C climatological average for the date. Recent model runs show limited variability, supporting the strong implied probability for 20°C while assigning lower odds to 21°C or 19°C. Updated guidance from Environment Canada and similar agencies over the next 24–48 hours will refine these temperature thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 8:56 AM ET
Volume
$332End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Northwest winds and a cooler air mass are driving the market's leading 20°C outcome for Toronto's September 14 high, with forecasts from multiple models converging on a maximum near 19–20°C under mostly clear skies. This follows a warmer weekend influenced by southerly flow, with the shift producing daytime highs well below the 22.4°C climatological average for the date. Recent model runs show limited variability, supporting the strong implied probability for 20°C while assigning lower odds to 21°C or 19°C. Updated guidance from Environment Canada and similar agencies over the next 24–48 hours will refine these temperature thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$332End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 8:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Northwest winds and a cooler air mass are driving the market's leading 20°C outcome for Toronto's September 14 high, with forecasts from multiple models converging on a maximum near 19–20°C under mostly clear skies. This follows a warmer weekend influenced by southerly flow, with the shift producing daytime highs well below the 22.4°C climatological average for the date. Recent model runs show limited variability, supporting the strong implied probability for 20°C while assigning lower odds to 21°C or 19°C. Updated guidance from Environment Canada and similar agencies over the next 24–48 hours will refine these temperature thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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