Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature of 13–14°C for Mexico City on September 14, driven by overnight radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies at the city's high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters. This allows surface heat to escape efficiently after daytime highs near 23°C, with dew points around 12–13°C limiting further drops. Light winds and possible scattered showers add minor uncertainty, as increased moisture or cloud cover could moderate the low by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 10–12°C provide context, but current conditions favor a milder outcome. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 13–15°C, reflecting strong model consensus while acknowledging resolution depends on official station readings amid typical forecast variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 14?
17°C or higher 47%
14°C 42%
10°C 39%
11°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
7°C or below
2%
8°C
2%
9°C
2%
10°C
39%
11°C
39%
12°C
39%
13°C
29%
14°C
34%
15°C
25%
16°C
39%
17°C or higher
47%
17°C or higher 47%
14°C 42%
10°C 39%
11°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
8°C
$0 Vol.
2%
9°C
$0 Vol.
2%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
39%
12°C
$0 Vol.
39%
13°C
$0 Vol.
29%
14°C
$7 Vol.
34%
15°C
$58 Vol.
25%
16°C
$48 Vol.
39%
17°C or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature of 13–14°C for Mexico City on September 14, driven by overnight radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies at the city's high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters. This allows surface heat to escape efficiently after daytime highs near 23°C, with dew points around 12–13°C limiting further drops. Light winds and possible scattered showers add minor uncertainty, as increased moisture or cloud cover could moderate the low by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 10–12°C provide context, but current conditions favor a milder outcome. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 13–15°C, reflecting strong model consensus while acknowledging resolution depends on official station readings amid typical forecast variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 8:30 AM ET
Volume
$113End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 8:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature of 13–14°C for Mexico City on September 14, driven by overnight radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies at the city's high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters. This allows surface heat to escape efficiently after daytime highs near 23°C, with dew points around 12–13°C limiting further drops. Light winds and possible scattered showers add minor uncertainty, as increased moisture or cloud cover could moderate the low by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 10–12°C provide context, but current conditions favor a milder outcome. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 13–15°C, reflecting strong model consensus while acknowledging resolution depends on official station readings amid typical forecast variability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$113End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 8:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature of 13–14°C for Mexico City on September 14, driven by overnight radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies at the city's high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters. This allows surface heat to escape efficiently after daytime highs near 23°C, with dew points around 12–13°C limiting further drops. Light winds and possible scattered showers add minor uncertainty, as increased moisture or cloud cover could moderate the low by 1–2°C. Historical September averages near 10–12°C provide context, but current conditions favor a milder outcome. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 13–15°C, reflecting strong model consensus while acknowledging resolution depends on official station readings amid typical forecast variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions