**Forecast uncertainty for Istanbul's overnight low on September 15 centers on variable northeast winds, partial cloud cover, and limited radiative cooling, keeping market-implied odds nearly even between a cool 14°C-or-below outcome and a warmer 24°C-or-higher result.** Current conditions feature mild temperatures near 20°C with northerly flow and scattered showers tapering off, while ensemble models from agencies like ECMWF and GFS project daytime highs around 24–25°C and nighttime minima clustered near 17–19°C. Differences in predicted cloud thickness and wind speed could shift the low by several degrees either way, as clearer skies would enhance cooling toward the lower end of the range and persistent clouds would limit it. Historical September baselines for the region show typical overnight lows near 18°C, providing context for the tight spread in trader sentiment ahead of updated model runs expected within the next 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 15?
24°C or higher 88%
14°C or below 45%
15°C 21%
16°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
14°C or below
45%
15°C
21%
16°C
21%
17°C
21%
18°C
21%
19°C
21%
20°C
21%
21°C
1%
22°C
18%
23°C
18%
24°C or higher
88%
24°C or higher 88%
14°C or below 45%
15°C 21%
16°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
45%
15°C
$0 Vol.
21%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C
$0 Vol.
21%
18°C
$0 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
21%
20°C
$0 Vol.
21%
21°C
$10 Vol.
1%
22°C
$10 Vol.
18%
23°C
$10 Vol.
18%
24°C or higher
$10 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty for Istanbul's overnight low on September 15 centers on variable northeast winds, partial cloud cover, and limited radiative cooling, keeping market-implied odds nearly even between a cool 14°C-or-below outcome and a warmer 24°C-or-higher result.** Current conditions feature mild temperatures near 20°C with northerly flow and scattered showers tapering off, while ensemble models from agencies like ECMWF and GFS project daytime highs around 24–25°C and nighttime minima clustered near 17–19°C. Differences in predicted cloud thickness and wind speed could shift the low by several degrees either way, as clearer skies would enhance cooling toward the lower end of the range and persistent clouds would limit it. Historical September baselines for the region show typical overnight lows near 18°C, providing context for the tight spread in trader sentiment ahead of updated model runs expected within the next 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast uncertainty for Istanbul's overnight low on September 15 centers on variable northeast winds, partial cloud cover, and limited radiative cooling, keeping market-implied odds nearly even between a cool 14°C-or-below outcome and a warmer 24°C-or-higher result.** Current conditions feature mild temperatures near 20°C with northerly flow and scattered showers tapering off, while ensemble models from agencies like ECMWF and GFS project daytime highs around 24–25°C and nighttime minima clustered near 17–19°C. Differences in predicted cloud thickness and wind speed could shift the low by several degrees either way, as clearer skies would enhance cooling toward the lower end of the range and persistent clouds would limit it. Historical September baselines for the region show typical overnight lows near 18°C, providing context for the tight spread in trader sentiment ahead of updated model runs expected within the next 24 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast uncertainty for Istanbul's overnight low on September 15 centers on variable northeast winds, partial cloud cover, and limited radiative cooling, keeping market-implied odds nearly even between a cool 14°C-or-below outcome and a warmer 24°C-or-higher result.** Current conditions feature mild temperatures near 20°C with northerly flow and scattered showers tapering off, while ensemble models from agencies like ECMWF and GFS project daytime highs around 24–25°C and nighttime minima clustered near 17–19°C. Differences in predicted cloud thickness and wind speed could shift the low by several degrees either way, as clearer skies would enhance cooling toward the lower end of the range and persistent clouds would limit it. Historical September baselines for the region show typical overnight lows near 18°C, providing context for the tight spread in trader sentiment ahead of updated model runs expected within the next 24 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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