Ensemble forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate a stable high-pressure system over central Europe, positioning Warsaw’s September 13 maximum temperature near 20–21 °C as the most probable outcome. This reflects typical mid-September climatology for the region, with daytime highs moderated by light northeasterly flow and limited moisture. Recent model runs show minimal spread in the 24–48-hour window, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward these two values, while the small probabilities assigned to 19 °C or 22 °C capture residual uncertainty from potential boundary-layer mixing or slight timing shifts in any passing cloud cover. Updated surface observations and the next ECMWF deterministic run will provide the final calibration before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 13?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 13?
20°C 47%
21°C 37%
19°C 9%
22°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
2%
18°C
2%
19°C
9%
20°C
47%
21°C
37%
22°C
5%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
<1%
20°C 47%
21°C 37%
19°C 9%
22°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
14°C or below
$67 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$134 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$94 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$18 Vol.
2%
18°C
$161 Vol.
2%
19°C
$547 Vol.
9%
20°C
$750 Vol.
47%
21°C
$781 Vol.
37%
22°C
$263 Vol.
5%
23°C
$59 Vol.
2%
24°C or higher
$190 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate a stable high-pressure system over central Europe, positioning Warsaw’s September 13 maximum temperature near 20–21 °C as the most probable outcome. This reflects typical mid-September climatology for the region, with daytime highs moderated by light northeasterly flow and limited moisture. Recent model runs show minimal spread in the 24–48-hour window, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward these two values, while the small probabilities assigned to 19 °C or 22 °C capture residual uncertainty from potential boundary-layer mixing or slight timing shifts in any passing cloud cover. Updated surface observations and the next ECMWF deterministic run will provide the final calibration before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$3,038End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate a stable high-pressure system over central Europe, positioning Warsaw’s September 13 maximum temperature near 20–21 °C as the most probable outcome. This reflects typical mid-September climatology for the region, with daytime highs moderated by light northeasterly flow and limited moisture. Recent model runs show minimal spread in the 24–48-hour window, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward these two values, while the small probabilities assigned to 19 °C or 22 °C capture residual uncertainty from potential boundary-layer mixing or slight timing shifts in any passing cloud cover. Updated surface observations and the next ECMWF deterministic run will provide the final calibration before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,038End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate a stable high-pressure system over central Europe, positioning Warsaw’s September 13 maximum temperature near 20–21 °C as the most probable outcome. This reflects typical mid-September climatology for the region, with daytime highs moderated by light northeasterly flow and limited moisture. Recent model runs show minimal spread in the 24–48-hour window, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward these two values, while the small probabilities assigned to 19 °C or 22 °C capture residual uncertainty from potential boundary-layer mixing or slight timing shifts in any passing cloud cover. Updated surface observations and the next ECMWF deterministic run will provide the final calibration before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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