Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model ensembles show notable uncertainty for Dallas minimum temperatures on September 14, with some runs indicating cool air advection behind a possible frontal passage while others favor continued warm southerly flow. This divergence drives the near-even market-implied odds between 71°F or below and 90°F or higher, as traders weigh the strength and timing of any boundary layer changes against typical September climatology of 75-82°F lows. Upcoming short-range guidance updates and surface observations will likely refine the outlook ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Dallas on September 14?
71°F or below 100%
90°F or higher 98%
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 40%
71°F or below
100%
72-73°F
39%
74-75°F
39%
76-77°F
39%
78-79°F
39%
80-81°F
40%
82-83°F
40%
84-85°F
39%
86-87°F
39%
88-89°F
39%
90°F or higher
98%
71°F or below 100%
90°F or higher 98%
80-81°F 40%
82-83°F 40%
71°F or below
100%
72-73°F
39%
74-75°F
39%
76-77°F
39%
78-79°F
39%
80-81°F
40%
82-83°F
40%
84-85°F
39%
86-87°F
39%
88-89°F
39%
90°F or higher
98%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and NOAA model ensembles show notable uncertainty for Dallas minimum temperatures on September 14, with some runs indicating cool air advection behind a possible frontal passage while others favor continued warm southerly flow. This divergence drives the near-even market-implied odds between 71°F or below and 90°F or higher, as traders weigh the strength and timing of any boundary layer changes against typical September climatology of 75-82°F lows. Upcoming short-range guidance updates and surface observations will likely refine the outlook ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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