Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, reinforced by nearby low-pressure areas tracked by PAGASA, is expected to sustain cloudy skies, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity over Manila on September 14. These conditions limit solar heating and promote evaporative cooling, keeping official model guidance for daily maximum temperatures clustered in the 30–32°C range. Minor differences in the timing or intensity of rain bands versus any brief cloud breaks explain the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 31°C, 32°C, and 33°C. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs will clarify whether steering patterns allow slightly stronger afternoon insolation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 14?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 14?
32°C 27%
33°C 26%
31°C 22%
34°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
26°C or below
2%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
4%
30°C
6%
31°C
22%
32°C
27%
33°C
26%
34°C
7%
35°C
2%
36°C or higher
2%
32°C 27%
33°C 26%
31°C 22%
34°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
26°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
1%
28°C
$0 Vol.
3%
29°C
$15 Vol.
4%
30°C
$25 Vol.
6%
31°C
$77 Vol.
22%
32°C
$65 Vol.
27%
33°C
$70 Vol.
26%
34°C
$10 Vol.
7%
35°C
$0 Vol.
2%
36°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, reinforced by nearby low-pressure areas tracked by PAGASA, is expected to sustain cloudy skies, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity over Manila on September 14. These conditions limit solar heating and promote evaporative cooling, keeping official model guidance for daily maximum temperatures clustered in the 30–32°C range. Minor differences in the timing or intensity of rain bands versus any brief cloud breaks explain the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 31°C, 32°C, and 33°C. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs will clarify whether steering patterns allow slightly stronger afternoon insolation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$262End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, reinforced by nearby low-pressure areas tracked by PAGASA, is expected to sustain cloudy skies, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity over Manila on September 14. These conditions limit solar heating and promote evaporative cooling, keeping official model guidance for daily maximum temperatures clustered in the 30–32°C range. Minor differences in the timing or intensity of rain bands versus any brief cloud breaks explain the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 31°C, 32°C, and 33°C. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs will clarify whether steering patterns allow slightly stronger afternoon insolation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$262End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, reinforced by nearby low-pressure areas tracked by PAGASA, is expected to sustain cloudy skies, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity over Manila on September 14. These conditions limit solar heating and promote evaporative cooling, keeping official model guidance for daily maximum temperatures clustered in the 30–32°C range. Minor differences in the timing or intensity of rain bands versus any brief cloud breaks explain the closely matched market-implied probabilities for 31°C, 32°C, and 33°C. Updated PAGASA briefings and next model runs will clarify whether steering patterns allow slightly stronger afternoon insolation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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