Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a moderating air mass behind a weak cold front crossing the region Saturday night, positioning Chicago for a Monday high most likely in the low-to-mid 70s°F. This follows an 18-day stretch of above-normal warmth, with the incoming northerly flow and increased cloud cover expected to limit daytime heating below both recent readings and the late-September climatological average of 76.7°F. Forecasters highlight modest model spread on exact timing of any lingering moisture or boundary-layer mixing, which could nudge the peak by a degree or two and explains the tight market clustering around the 70–73°F bins. Updated NWS point forecasts and short-range ensembles through the weekend will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on September 14?
Highest temperature in Chicago on September 14?
72-73°F 36%
70-71°F 35%
74-75°F 20%
76-77°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
63°F or below
3%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
14%
68-69°F
19%
70-71°F
35%
72-73°F
36%
74-75°F
20%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
16%
80-81°F
3%
82°F or higher
3%
72-73°F 36%
70-71°F 35%
74-75°F 20%
76-77°F 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
63°F or below
$0 Vol.
3%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
7%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
14%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
19%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
35%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
36%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
20%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
20%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
16%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
3%
82°F or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a moderating air mass behind a weak cold front crossing the region Saturday night, positioning Chicago for a Monday high most likely in the low-to-mid 70s°F. This follows an 18-day stretch of above-normal warmth, with the incoming northerly flow and increased cloud cover expected to limit daytime heating below both recent readings and the late-September climatological average of 76.7°F. Forecasters highlight modest model spread on exact timing of any lingering moisture or boundary-layer mixing, which could nudge the peak by a degree or two and explains the tight market clustering around the 70–73°F bins. Updated NWS point forecasts and short-range ensembles through the weekend will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a moderating air mass behind a weak cold front crossing the region Saturday night, positioning Chicago for a Monday high most likely in the low-to-mid 70s°F. This follows an 18-day stretch of above-normal warmth, with the incoming northerly flow and increased cloud cover expected to limit daytime heating below both recent readings and the late-September climatological average of 76.7°F. Forecasters highlight modest model spread on exact timing of any lingering moisture or boundary-layer mixing, which could nudge the peak by a degree or two and explains the tight market clustering around the 70–73°F bins. Updated NWS point forecasts and short-range ensembles through the weekend will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance indicate a moderating air mass behind a weak cold front crossing the region Saturday night, positioning Chicago for a Monday high most likely in the low-to-mid 70s°F. This follows an 18-day stretch of above-normal warmth, with the incoming northerly flow and increased cloud cover expected to limit daytime heating below both recent readings and the late-September climatological average of 76.7°F. Forecasters highlight modest model spread on exact timing of any lingering moisture or boundary-layer mixing, which could nudge the peak by a degree or two and explains the tight market clustering around the 70–73°F bins. Updated NWS point forecasts and short-range ensembles through the weekend will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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