**Current conditions and official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory place the day's minimum temperature near 27°C, aligning with the market's strong 87.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Nighttime readings across stations as of late evening on September 12 showed values clustered around 27–28°C, with overnight lows holding steady due to persistent cloud cover, high humidity (often 80%+), and light easterly winds that limit radiative cooling. Forecast models consistently projected minimums in the 25–27°C range, with many sources settling on 26–27°C as the most likely floor given the tropical air mass and scattered showers. Historical September baselines (typical nightly lows near 24–26°C) are being exceeded slightly due to these stable, moist conditions, reducing the chance of a sharper drop to 25°C or below. No significant frontal systems or clear-sky episodes emerged in the past 24–48 hours to alter the trajectory. With the day nearly complete, updated station data and model consensus reinforce trader positioning around 27°C as the resolution threshold, while lower outcomes retain modest probabilities only if final official minimums revise downward.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 12?
27°C 95%
26°C 8%
24°C 4%
25°C 2%
$104,654 Vol.
$104,654 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
4%
25°C
2%
26°C
8%
27°C
88%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
27°C 95%
26°C 8%
24°C 4%
25°C 2%
$104,654 Vol.
$104,654 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
22°C or below
$528 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,934 Vol.
2%
24°C
$3,362 Vol.
4%
25°C
$5,055 Vol.
2%
26°C
$1,771 Vol.
8%
27°C
$5,890 Vol.
88%
28°C
$85,743 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$82 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$157 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$76 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$54 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Current conditions and official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory place the day's minimum temperature near 27°C, aligning with the market's strong 87.5% implied probability for that outcome.**
Nighttime readings across stations as of late evening on September 12 showed values clustered around 27–28°C, with overnight lows holding steady due to persistent cloud cover, high humidity (often 80%+), and light easterly winds that limit radiative cooling. Forecast models consistently projected minimums in the 25–27°C range, with many sources settling on 26–27°C as the most likely floor given the tropical air mass and scattered showers. Historical September baselines (typical nightly lows near 24–26°C) are being exceeded slightly due to these stable, moist conditions, reducing the chance of a sharper drop to 25°C or below. No significant frontal systems or clear-sky episodes emerged in the past 24–48 hours to alter the trajectory. With the day nearly complete, updated station data and model consensus reinforce trader positioning around 27°C as the resolution threshold, while lower outcomes retain modest probabilities only if final official minimums revise downward.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$104,654End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Current conditions and official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory place the day's minimum temperature near 27°C, aligning with the market's strong 87.5% implied probability for that outcome.**
Nighttime readings across stations as of late evening on September 12 showed values clustered around 27–28°C, with overnight lows holding steady due to persistent cloud cover, high humidity (often 80%+), and light easterly winds that limit radiative cooling. Forecast models consistently projected minimums in the 25–27°C range, with many sources settling on 26–27°C as the most likely floor given the tropical air mass and scattered showers. Historical September baselines (typical nightly lows near 24–26°C) are being exceeded slightly due to these stable, moist conditions, reducing the chance of a sharper drop to 25°C or below. No significant frontal systems or clear-sky episodes emerged in the past 24–48 hours to alter the trajectory. With the day nearly complete, updated station data and model consensus reinforce trader positioning around 27°C as the resolution threshold, while lower outcomes retain modest probabilities only if final official minimums revise downward.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$104,654End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current conditions and official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory place the day's minimum temperature near 27°C, aligning with the market's strong 87.5% implied probability for that outcome.** Nighttime readings across stations as of late evening on September 12 showed values clustered around 27–28°C, with overnight lows holding steady due to persistent cloud cover, high humidity (often 80%+), and light easterly winds that limit radiative cooling. Forecast models consistently projected minimums in the 25–27°C range, with many sources settling on 26–27°C as the most likely floor given the tropical air mass and scattered showers. Historical September baselines (typical nightly lows near 24–26°C) are being exceeded slightly due to these stable, moist conditions, reducing the chance of a sharper drop to 25°C or below. No significant frontal systems or clear-sky episodes emerged in the past 24–48 hours to alter the trajectory. With the day nearly complete, updated station data and model consensus reinforce trader positioning around 27°C as the resolution threshold, while lower outcomes retain modest probabilities only if final official minimums revise downward.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions