Northeast monsoon flow over Hong Kong on September 11 sustained northeasterly winds of 4–5 m/s and promoted drier air masses with relative humidity dropping below 60% during peak heating, enabling efficient overnight radiative cooling that aligned the Hong Kong Observatory forecast minimum near 25°C within a 25–31°C daily range. This setup matched seasonal September norms for the region, where typical overnight lows hover around 26°C but strengthen under clear to partly cloudy skies and moderate wind. Trader consensus at 99.8% implied probability for 25°C reflects verified observational consistency from official stations, though modest uncertainty persists around exact cloud-cover timing or localized wind shifts that could nudge the absolute minimum into the adjacent 24°C or 26°C band once the finalized daily extract is released.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 11?
25°C 99.8%
23°C 2.0%
27°C 1.0%
21°C or below <1%
$37,922 Vol.
$37,922 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.8%
23°C 2.0%
27°C 1.0%
21°C or below <1%
$37,922 Vol.
$37,922 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
21°C or below
$1,045 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,050 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$2,591 Vol.
2%
24°C
$5,713 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$9,826 Vol.
100%
26°C
$5,533 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$8,795 Vol.
1%
28°C
$3,101 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$86 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$96 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$86 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Northeast monsoon flow over Hong Kong on September 11 sustained northeasterly winds of 4–5 m/s and promoted drier air masses with relative humidity dropping below 60% during peak heating, enabling efficient overnight radiative cooling that aligned the Hong Kong Observatory forecast minimum near 25°C within a 25–31°C daily range. This setup matched seasonal September norms for the region, where typical overnight lows hover around 26°C but strengthen under clear to partly cloudy skies and moderate wind. Trader consensus at 99.8% implied probability for 25°C reflects verified observational consistency from official stations, though modest uncertainty persists around exact cloud-cover timing or localized wind shifts that could nudge the absolute minimum into the adjacent 24°C or 26°C band once the finalized daily extract is released.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$37,922End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Northeast monsoon flow over Hong Kong on September 11 sustained northeasterly winds of 4–5 m/s and promoted drier air masses with relative humidity dropping below 60% during peak heating, enabling efficient overnight radiative cooling that aligned the Hong Kong Observatory forecast minimum near 25°C within a 25–31°C daily range. This setup matched seasonal September norms for the region, where typical overnight lows hover around 26°C but strengthen under clear to partly cloudy skies and moderate wind. Trader consensus at 99.8% implied probability for 25°C reflects verified observational consistency from official stations, though modest uncertainty persists around exact cloud-cover timing or localized wind shifts that could nudge the absolute minimum into the adjacent 24°C or 26°C band once the finalized daily extract is released.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$37,922End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Northeast monsoon flow over Hong Kong on September 11 sustained northeasterly winds of 4–5 m/s and promoted drier air masses with relative humidity dropping below 60% during peak heating, enabling efficient overnight radiative cooling that aligned the Hong Kong Observatory forecast minimum near 25°C within a 25–31°C daily range. This setup matched seasonal September norms for the region, where typical overnight lows hover around 26°C but strengthen under clear to partly cloudy skies and moderate wind. Trader consensus at 99.8% implied probability for 25°C reflects verified observational consistency from official stations, though modest uncertainty persists around exact cloud-cover timing or localized wind shifts that could nudge the absolute minimum into the adjacent 24°C or 26°C band once the finalized daily extract is released.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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