**Forecast models from sources like WindBorne Systems and local meteorological services indicate a minimum temperature near 56°F for San Francisco on September 14, aligning with the market's leading 56-57°F outcome at 54% implied probability.** Clear to mostly clear skies, light westerly winds, and typical late-summer marine influence are expected to limit overnight cooling without pushing temperatures into extreme ranges. Historical September 14 averages show a low of about 55.9°F, with recent years clustering between 54-59°F and an all-time record low of 50°F, providing context for the moderate clustering of trader probabilities around the mid-50s. The 25.5% odds on both sub-47°F and 66°F+ tails reflect residual uncertainty in model runs and potential microclimate variations, while upcoming overnight observations and any late forecast adjustments from NOAA could refine these market-implied odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 14?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 14?
56-57°F 54%
47°F or below 51%
66°F or higher 51%
58-59°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
47°F or below
51%
48-49°F
17%
50-51°F
39%
52-53°F
39%
54-55°F
37%
56-57°F
54%
58-59°F
40%
60-61°F
39%
62-63°F
17%
64-65°F
17%
66°F or higher
51%
56-57°F 54%
47°F or below 51%
66°F or higher 51%
58-59°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
47°F or below
$0 Vol.
51%
48-49°F
$0 Vol.
17%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
39%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
39%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
37%
56-57°F
$121 Vol.
54%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
40%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
39%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
17%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
17%
66°F or higher
$0 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like WindBorne Systems and local meteorological services indicate a minimum temperature near 56°F for San Francisco on September 14, aligning with the market's leading 56-57°F outcome at 54% implied probability.** Clear to mostly clear skies, light westerly winds, and typical late-summer marine influence are expected to limit overnight cooling without pushing temperatures into extreme ranges. Historical September 14 averages show a low of about 55.9°F, with recent years clustering between 54-59°F and an all-time record low of 50°F, providing context for the moderate clustering of trader probabilities around the mid-50s. The 25.5% odds on both sub-47°F and 66°F+ tails reflect residual uncertainty in model runs and potential microclimate variations, while upcoming overnight observations and any late forecast adjustments from NOAA could refine these market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$121End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like WindBorne Systems and local meteorological services indicate a minimum temperature near 56°F for San Francisco on September 14, aligning with the market's leading 56-57°F outcome at 54% implied probability.** Clear to mostly clear skies, light westerly winds, and typical late-summer marine influence are expected to limit overnight cooling without pushing temperatures into extreme ranges. Historical September 14 averages show a low of about 55.9°F, with recent years clustering between 54-59°F and an all-time record low of 50°F, providing context for the moderate clustering of trader probabilities around the mid-50s. The 25.5% odds on both sub-47°F and 66°F+ tails reflect residual uncertainty in model runs and potential microclimate variations, while upcoming overnight observations and any late forecast adjustments from NOAA could refine these market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$121End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources like WindBorne Systems and local meteorological services indicate a minimum temperature near 56°F for San Francisco on September 14, aligning with the market's leading 56-57°F outcome at 54% implied probability.** Clear to mostly clear skies, light westerly winds, and typical late-summer marine influence are expected to limit overnight cooling without pushing temperatures into extreme ranges. Historical September 14 averages show a low of about 55.9°F, with recent years clustering between 54-59°F and an all-time record low of 50°F, providing context for the moderate clustering of trader probabilities around the mid-50s. The 25.5% odds on both sub-47°F and 66°F+ tails reflect residual uncertainty in model runs and potential microclimate variations, while upcoming overnight observations and any late forecast adjustments from NOAA could refine these market-implied odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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