Recent observational data from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate afternoon temperatures peaking near 33°C across urban stations, aligning closely with model consensus from sources like ECMWF and GFS that forecast a daily maximum in this range amid partly cloudy conditions and easterly flow. This positions 33°C as the market-implied outcome with overwhelming trader consensus, reflecting real-time measurements and the limited potential for further intensification on September 12. Scenarios that could realistically alter resolution include precise official rounding to 34°C if isolated readings exceed thresholds or revisions in post-analysis data, though current trends and climatological baselines for mid-September make such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 12?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 12?
33°C 99.6%
35°C or higher <1%
34°C <1%
32°C <1%
$117,674 Vol.
$117,674 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
100%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
1%
33°C 99.6%
35°C or higher <1%
34°C <1%
32°C <1%
$117,674 Vol.
$117,674 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
25°C or below
$374 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$608 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$4,816 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$7,702 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$16,122 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$36,732 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$22,153 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$21,717 Vol.
100%
34°C
$6,559 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$766 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent observational data from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate afternoon temperatures peaking near 33°C across urban stations, aligning closely with model consensus from sources like ECMWF and GFS that forecast a daily maximum in this range amid partly cloudy conditions and easterly flow. This positions 33°C as the market-implied outcome with overwhelming trader consensus, reflecting real-time measurements and the limited potential for further intensification on September 12. Scenarios that could realistically alter resolution include precise official rounding to 34°C if isolated readings exceed thresholds or revisions in post-analysis data, though current trends and climatological baselines for mid-September make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$117,674End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent observational data from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate afternoon temperatures peaking near 33°C across urban stations, aligning closely with model consensus from sources like ECMWF and GFS that forecast a daily maximum in this range amid partly cloudy conditions and easterly flow. This positions 33°C as the market-implied outcome with overwhelming trader consensus, reflecting real-time measurements and the limited potential for further intensification on September 12. Scenarios that could realistically alter resolution include precise official rounding to 34°C if isolated readings exceed thresholds or revisions in post-analysis data, though current trends and climatological baselines for mid-September make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$117,674End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from the Hong Kong Observatory indicate afternoon temperatures peaking near 33°C across urban stations, aligning closely with model consensus from sources like ECMWF and GFS that forecast a daily maximum in this range amid partly cloudy conditions and easterly flow. This positions 33°C as the market-implied outcome with overwhelming trader consensus, reflecting real-time measurements and the limited potential for further intensification on September 12. Scenarios that could realistically alter resolution include precise official rounding to 34°C if isolated readings exceed thresholds or revisions in post-analysis data, though current trends and climatological baselines for mid-September make such shifts unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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