Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model runs show significant spread for Chicago's minimum temperature on September 14, with some guidance keeping readings near 60–62°F under lingering warm, humid air while others project a stronger northwest flow and clearer skies dropping lows into the mid-50s or lower. A cold front that crossed the region over the weekend ended an extended stretch of above-normal temperatures, yet post-frontal moderation remains uncertain due to variable wind trajectories and potential Lake Michigan influence. Historical September 14 lows average 59°F, so the closely matched market-implied odds near 49% for both sub-50°F and 68°F-plus outcomes reflect genuine forecast divergence rather than consensus. Updated model runs and official National Weather Service briefings over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on September 14?
49°F or below 99%
68°F or higher 98%
52-53°F 40%
54-55°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
49°F or below
99%
50-51°F
39%
52-53°F
40%
54-55°F
40%
56-57°F
39%
58-59°F
39%
60-61°F
39%
62-63°F
39%
64-65°F
39%
66-67°F
39%
68°F or higher
98%
49°F or below 99%
68°F or higher 98%
52-53°F 40%
54-55°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
49°F or below
$0 Vol.
99%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
39%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
40%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
40%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
39%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
39%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
39%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
39%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
39%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
39%
68°F or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model runs show significant spread for Chicago's minimum temperature on September 14, with some guidance keeping readings near 60–62°F under lingering warm, humid air while others project a stronger northwest flow and clearer skies dropping lows into the mid-50s or lower. A cold front that crossed the region over the weekend ended an extended stretch of above-normal temperatures, yet post-frontal moderation remains uncertain due to variable wind trajectories and potential Lake Michigan influence. Historical September 14 lows average 59°F, so the closely matched market-implied odds near 49% for both sub-50°F and 68°F-plus outcomes reflect genuine forecast divergence rather than consensus. Updated model runs and official National Weather Service briefings over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model runs show significant spread for Chicago's minimum temperature on September 14, with some guidance keeping readings near 60–62°F under lingering warm, humid air while others project a stronger northwest flow and clearer skies dropping lows into the mid-50s or lower. A cold front that crossed the region over the weekend ended an extended stretch of above-normal temperatures, yet post-frontal moderation remains uncertain due to variable wind trajectories and potential Lake Michigan influence. Historical September 14 lows average 59°F, so the closely matched market-implied odds near 49% for both sub-50°F and 68°F-plus outcomes reflect genuine forecast divergence rather than consensus. Updated model runs and official National Weather Service briefings over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model runs show significant spread for Chicago's minimum temperature on September 14, with some guidance keeping readings near 60–62°F under lingering warm, humid air while others project a stronger northwest flow and clearer skies dropping lows into the mid-50s or lower. A cold front that crossed the region over the weekend ended an extended stretch of above-normal temperatures, yet post-frontal moderation remains uncertain due to variable wind trajectories and potential Lake Michigan influence. Historical September 14 lows average 59°F, so the closely matched market-implied odds near 49% for both sub-50°F and 68°F-plus outcomes reflect genuine forecast divergence rather than consensus. Updated model runs and official National Weather Service briefings over the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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