Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a cloudy Saturday with scattered showers for Tokyo on September 12, limiting daytime heating and supporting maximum temperatures clustered around 24–27 °C. Persistent cloud cover and light northeasterly flow following mid-week rainfall have kept surface temperatures below seasonal normals of 28 °C, while modest differences among model runs—primarily in timing and intensity of showers—account for the tight spread across the leading market outcomes. Historical September variability shows similar post-frontal cooling episodes can suppress highs by 3–5 °C, creating genuine uncertainty that traders price into closely matched probabilities for each degree threshold. Updated model guidance and official briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 12?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 12?
25°C 31%
24°C 27%
26°C 19%
23°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
18°C or below
3%
19°C
3%
20°C
4%
21°C
4%
22°C
5%
23°C
10%
24°C
27%
25°C
30%
26°C
19%
27°C
10%
28°C or higher
4%
25°C 31%
24°C 27%
26°C 19%
23°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
19°C
$0 Vol.
3%
20°C
$0 Vol.
4%
21°C
$0 Vol.
4%
22°C
$0 Vol.
5%
23°C
$12 Vol.
10%
24°C
$5 Vol.
27%
25°C
$13 Vol.
30%
26°C
$0 Vol.
19%
27°C
$20 Vol.
10%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a cloudy Saturday with scattered showers for Tokyo on September 12, limiting daytime heating and supporting maximum temperatures clustered around 24–27 °C. Persistent cloud cover and light northeasterly flow following mid-week rainfall have kept surface temperatures below seasonal normals of 28 °C, while modest differences among model runs—primarily in timing and intensity of showers—account for the tight spread across the leading market outcomes. Historical September variability shows similar post-frontal cooling episodes can suppress highs by 3–5 °C, creating genuine uncertainty that traders price into closely matched probabilities for each degree threshold. Updated model guidance and official briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$50End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a cloudy Saturday with scattered showers for Tokyo on September 12, limiting daytime heating and supporting maximum temperatures clustered around 24–27 °C. Persistent cloud cover and light northeasterly flow following mid-week rainfall have kept surface temperatures below seasonal normals of 28 °C, while modest differences among model runs—primarily in timing and intensity of showers—account for the tight spread across the leading market outcomes. Historical September variability shows similar post-frontal cooling episodes can suppress highs by 3–5 °C, creating genuine uncertainty that traders price into closely matched probabilities for each degree threshold. Updated model guidance and official briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$50End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models indicate a cloudy Saturday with scattered showers for Tokyo on September 12, limiting daytime heating and supporting maximum temperatures clustered around 24–27 °C. Persistent cloud cover and light northeasterly flow following mid-week rainfall have kept surface temperatures below seasonal normals of 28 °C, while modest differences among model runs—primarily in timing and intensity of showers—account for the tight spread across the leading market outcomes. Historical September variability shows similar post-frontal cooling episodes can suppress highs by 3–5 °C, creating genuine uncertainty that traders price into closely matched probabilities for each degree threshold. Updated model guidance and official briefings expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these ranges before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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