Recent weather model consensus from sources including Environment Canada and global forecasts positions a daytime high of 23–24°C as the most probable outcome for Toronto on September 10, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, westerly winds of 10–13 mph, and minimal precipitation risk supporting modest warming after a cooler, stormy September 9. These conditions align closely with the long-term average high of 23.1°C for the date and explain why 24°C leads market-implied odds at 41% followed by 25°C at 31%. Limited model spread and the absence of strong high-pressure ridging or southerly flow keep probabilities for 26°C or above below 10%, while the market's emphasis on 23–25°C reflects traders' assessment of observational uncertainty around peak afternoon readings at official stations. Updated model runs and initial observations on the day will provide the next key inputs before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on September 10?
Highest temperature in Toronto on September 10?
24°C 40%
25°C 31%
23°C 17%
26°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
2%
21°C
2%
22°C
4%
23°C
17%
24°C
40%
25°C
31%
26°C
8%
27°C or higher
3%
24°C 40%
25°C 31%
23°C 17%
26°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
17°C or below
$421 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$501 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$254 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$290 Vol.
2%
21°C
$95 Vol.
2%
22°C
$319 Vol.
4%
23°C
$636 Vol.
17%
24°C
$754 Vol.
40%
25°C
$1,992 Vol.
31%
26°C
$903 Vol.
8%
27°C or higher
$144 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources including Environment Canada and global forecasts positions a daytime high of 23–24°C as the most probable outcome for Toronto on September 10, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, westerly winds of 10–13 mph, and minimal precipitation risk supporting modest warming after a cooler, stormy September 9. These conditions align closely with the long-term average high of 23.1°C for the date and explain why 24°C leads market-implied odds at 41% followed by 25°C at 31%. Limited model spread and the absence of strong high-pressure ridging or southerly flow keep probabilities for 26°C or above below 10%, while the market's emphasis on 23–25°C reflects traders' assessment of observational uncertainty around peak afternoon readings at official stations. Updated model runs and initial observations on the day will provide the next key inputs before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$6,310End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources including Environment Canada and global forecasts positions a daytime high of 23–24°C as the most probable outcome for Toronto on September 10, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, westerly winds of 10–13 mph, and minimal precipitation risk supporting modest warming after a cooler, stormy September 9. These conditions align closely with the long-term average high of 23.1°C for the date and explain why 24°C leads market-implied odds at 41% followed by 25°C at 31%. Limited model spread and the absence of strong high-pressure ridging or southerly flow keep probabilities for 26°C or above below 10%, while the market's emphasis on 23–25°C reflects traders' assessment of observational uncertainty around peak afternoon readings at official stations. Updated model runs and initial observations on the day will provide the next key inputs before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,310End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model consensus from sources including Environment Canada and global forecasts positions a daytime high of 23–24°C as the most probable outcome for Toronto on September 10, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, westerly winds of 10–13 mph, and minimal precipitation risk supporting modest warming after a cooler, stormy September 9. These conditions align closely with the long-term average high of 23.1°C for the date and explain why 24°C leads market-implied odds at 41% followed by 25°C at 31%. Limited model spread and the absence of strong high-pressure ridging or southerly flow keep probabilities for 26°C or above below 10%, while the market's emphasis on 23–25°C reflects traders' assessment of observational uncertainty around peak afternoon readings at official stations. Updated model runs and initial observations on the day will provide the next key inputs before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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