Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, with scattered rains, thunderstorms, and extensive cloud cover forecast for Manila on September 11, is the main factor capping daytime heating and aligning trader consensus near 30–31°C. High humidity levels near 80–90% and light variable winds further limit surface warming by reducing incoming solar radiation and promoting evaporative cooling. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model outputs show highs typically ranging 28–31°C under these conditions, close to the September climatological average of about 31°C. Minor variations in rainfall timing or breaks in cloud cover could shift the exact daily maximum between 30°C and 31°C, while stronger monsoon pulses might suppress it toward 29°C. Updated PAGASA briefings and model runs in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 11?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 11?
30°C 28%
31°C 26%
29°C 16%
32°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
6%
28°C
11%
29°C
16%
30°C
28%
31°C
26%
32°C
15%
33°C
9%
34°C or higher
9%
30°C 28%
31°C 26%
29°C 16%
32°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
24°C or below
$205 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$267 Vol.
1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
3%
27°C
$32 Vol.
6%
28°C
$20 Vol.
11%
29°C
$33 Vol.
16%
30°C
$235 Vol.
28%
31°C
$7 Vol.
26%
32°C
$0 Vol.
15%
33°C
$0 Vol.
9%
34°C or higher
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, with scattered rains, thunderstorms, and extensive cloud cover forecast for Manila on September 11, is the main factor capping daytime heating and aligning trader consensus near 30–31°C. High humidity levels near 80–90% and light variable winds further limit surface warming by reducing incoming solar radiation and promoting evaporative cooling. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model outputs show highs typically ranging 28–31°C under these conditions, close to the September climatological average of about 31°C. Minor variations in rainfall timing or breaks in cloud cover could shift the exact daily maximum between 30°C and 31°C, while stronger monsoon pulses might suppress it toward 29°C. Updated PAGASA briefings and model runs in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$798End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, with scattered rains, thunderstorms, and extensive cloud cover forecast for Manila on September 11, is the main factor capping daytime heating and aligning trader consensus near 30–31°C. High humidity levels near 80–90% and light variable winds further limit surface warming by reducing incoming solar radiation and promoting evaporative cooling. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model outputs show highs typically ranging 28–31°C under these conditions, close to the September climatological average of about 31°C. Minor variations in rainfall timing or breaks in cloud cover could shift the exact daily maximum between 30°C and 31°C, while stronger monsoon pulses might suppress it toward 29°C. Updated PAGASA briefings and model runs in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$798End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity, with scattered rains, thunderstorms, and extensive cloud cover forecast for Manila on September 11, is the main factor capping daytime heating and aligning trader consensus near 30–31°C. High humidity levels near 80–90% and light variable winds further limit surface warming by reducing incoming solar radiation and promoting evaporative cooling. Official PAGASA guidance and ensemble model outputs show highs typically ranging 28–31°C under these conditions, close to the September climatological average of about 31°C. Minor variations in rainfall timing or breaks in cloud cover could shift the exact daily maximum between 30°C and 31°C, while stronger monsoon pulses might suppress it toward 29°C. Updated PAGASA briefings and model runs in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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