**Trader sentiment strongly favors a 14°C low for Mexico City on September 11, 2026, with an 86.5% implied probability, reflecting consensus from official observations and forecasts.** Mexico City’s high elevation (~2,240 m) produces relatively cool nights even in September’s rainy season, when average lows typically range 12–13°C amid frequent cloud cover and showers that limit radiative cooling. On this date, model consensus and station data pointed to a minimum near 14°C, with hourly readings bottoming around that level amid light rain and high humidity rather than clearer, colder conditions that could have pushed readings to 13°C or below. The elevated 48.5% probability on 13°C captures residual uncertainty in microsite variations or measurement timing, but the dominant 14°C outcome aligns with National Meteorological Service guidance and real-time monitoring. Upcoming resolution will hinge on final verified station data from sources like the Benito Juárez International Airport network, confirming the exact daily minimum against these climatological baselines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 11?
14°C 99%
13°C 20%
12°C 7%
7°C or below <1%
$733 Vol.
$733 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
14°C 99%
13°C 20%
12°C 7%
7°C or below <1%
$733 Vol.
$733 Vol.
Sep 11, 2026
7°C or below
$30 Vol.
No
8°C
$60 Vol.
No
9°C
$5 Vol.
No
10°C
$67 Vol.
No
11°C
$55 Vol.
No
12°C
$21 Vol.
No
13°C
$10 Vol.
No
14°C
$208 Vol.
Yes
15°C
$123 Vol.
No
16°C
$110 Vol.
No
17°C or higher
$45 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment strongly favors a 14°C low for Mexico City on September 11, 2026, with an 86.5% implied probability, reflecting consensus from official observations and forecasts.**
Mexico City’s high elevation (~2,240 m) produces relatively cool nights even in September’s rainy season, when average lows typically range 12–13°C amid frequent cloud cover and showers that limit radiative cooling. On this date, model consensus and station data pointed to a minimum near 14°C, with hourly readings bottoming around that level amid light rain and high humidity rather than clearer, colder conditions that could have pushed readings to 13°C or below.
The elevated 48.5% probability on 13°C captures residual uncertainty in microsite variations or measurement timing, but the dominant 14°C outcome aligns with National Meteorological Service guidance and real-time monitoring. Upcoming resolution will hinge on final verified station data from sources like the Benito Juárez International Airport network, confirming the exact daily minimum against these climatological baselines.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$733End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment strongly favors a 14°C low for Mexico City on September 11, 2026, with an 86.5% implied probability, reflecting consensus from official observations and forecasts.**
Mexico City’s high elevation (~2,240 m) produces relatively cool nights even in September’s rainy season, when average lows typically range 12–13°C amid frequent cloud cover and showers that limit radiative cooling. On this date, model consensus and station data pointed to a minimum near 14°C, with hourly readings bottoming around that level amid light rain and high humidity rather than clearer, colder conditions that could have pushed readings to 13°C or below.
The elevated 48.5% probability on 13°C captures residual uncertainty in microsite variations or measurement timing, but the dominant 14°C outcome aligns with National Meteorological Service guidance and real-time monitoring. Upcoming resolution will hinge on final verified station data from sources like the Benito Juárez International Airport network, confirming the exact daily minimum against these climatological baselines.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$733End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader sentiment strongly favors a 14°C low for Mexico City on September 11, 2026, with an 86.5% implied probability, reflecting consensus from official observations and forecasts.** Mexico City’s high elevation (~2,240 m) produces relatively cool nights even in September’s rainy season, when average lows typically range 12–13°C amid frequent cloud cover and showers that limit radiative cooling. On this date, model consensus and station data pointed to a minimum near 14°C, with hourly readings bottoming around that level amid light rain and high humidity rather than clearer, colder conditions that could have pushed readings to 13°C or below. The elevated 48.5% probability on 13°C captures residual uncertainty in microsite variations or measurement timing, but the dominant 14°C outcome aligns with National Meteorological Service guidance and real-time monitoring. Upcoming resolution will hinge on final verified station data from sources like the Benito Juárez International Airport network, confirming the exact daily minimum against these climatological baselines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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