Ongoing rain showers and extensive cloud cover over São Paulo are limiting solar heating and capping daytime temperature rise on September 12, keeping surface readings in the 17–20°C range through midday according to METAR reports and model guidance. This pattern aligns with the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 19–23°C, as traders weigh how much additional warming might occur if breaks in the overcast develop before peak afternoon heating. Official maximums will be determined by stations such as Congonhas, where historical September averages near 23°C but recent days have trended cooler amid unsettled conditions. Updated model runs and any late-day clearing remain the key variables that could shift the final reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 12?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 12?
21°C 29%
20°C 16%
19°C or below 15.0%
22°C 15%
$28,119 Vol.
$28,119 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
19°C or below
15%
20°C
16%
21°C
29%
22°C
15%
23°C
10%
24°C
9%
25°C
4%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
21°C 29%
20°C 16%
19°C or below 15.0%
22°C 15%
$28,119 Vol.
$28,119 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
19°C or below
$3,330 Vol.
15%
20°C
$3,306 Vol.
16%
21°C
$3,326 Vol.
29%
22°C
$4,000 Vol.
15%
23°C
$3,022 Vol.
10%
24°C
$3,323 Vol.
9%
25°C
$3,512 Vol.
4%
26°C
$1,094 Vol.
2%
27°C
$1,000 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,066 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$1,140 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing rain showers and extensive cloud cover over São Paulo are limiting solar heating and capping daytime temperature rise on September 12, keeping surface readings in the 17–20°C range through midday according to METAR reports and model guidance. This pattern aligns with the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 19–23°C, as traders weigh how much additional warming might occur if breaks in the overcast develop before peak afternoon heating. Official maximums will be determined by stations such as Congonhas, where historical September averages near 23°C but recent days have trended cooler amid unsettled conditions. Updated model runs and any late-day clearing remain the key variables that could shift the final reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$28,119End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing rain showers and extensive cloud cover over São Paulo are limiting solar heating and capping daytime temperature rise on September 12, keeping surface readings in the 17–20°C range through midday according to METAR reports and model guidance. This pattern aligns with the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 19–23°C, as traders weigh how much additional warming might occur if breaks in the overcast develop before peak afternoon heating. Official maximums will be determined by stations such as Congonhas, where historical September averages near 23°C but recent days have trended cooler amid unsettled conditions. Updated model runs and any late-day clearing remain the key variables that could shift the final reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$28,119End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing rain showers and extensive cloud cover over São Paulo are limiting solar heating and capping daytime temperature rise on September 12, keeping surface readings in the 17–20°C range through midday according to METAR reports and model guidance. This pattern aligns with the closely matched market-implied probabilities around 19–23°C, as traders weigh how much additional warming might occur if breaks in the overcast develop before peak afternoon heating. Official maximums will be determined by stations such as Congonhas, where historical September averages near 23°C but recent days have trended cooler amid unsettled conditions. Updated model runs and any late-day clearing remain the key variables that could shift the final reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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