Recent MetService forecasts and supporting model guidance point to a maximum of 13–14°C in Wellington on September 9 under a building high-pressure ridge, with light variable winds shifting to northerlies by afternoon and mostly clear skies. Spring climatology for the region centers on 13–15°C daytime highs, and current ensemble runs show limited spread around these values, with minimal risk of stronger warming or cooling advection. The 65.5% market-implied probability on 14°C reflects trader weighting of the upper end of this narrow forecast range, while the combined 34% on 13°C and 15°C captures residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind timing ahead of the next front. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine the final observed maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 9?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 9?
14°C 66%
13°C 17%
15°C 17%
12°C 2%
NEW
$12,468 Vol.
NEW
$12,468 Vol.
Sep 9, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
17%
14°C
66%
15°C
17%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 66%
13°C 17%
15°C 17%
12°C 2%
NEW
$12,468 Vol.
NEW
$12,468 Vol.
Sep 9, 2026
8°C or below
$1,366 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$355 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$419 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$871 Vol.
1%
12°C
$850 Vol.
2%
13°C
$1,716 Vol.
17%
14°C
$2,585 Vol.
66%
15°C
$2,205 Vol.
17%
16°C
$693 Vol.
1%
17°C
$790 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$616 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService forecasts and supporting model guidance point to a maximum of 13–14°C in Wellington on September 9 under a building high-pressure ridge, with light variable winds shifting to northerlies by afternoon and mostly clear skies. Spring climatology for the region centers on 13–15°C daytime highs, and current ensemble runs show limited spread around these values, with minimal risk of stronger warming or cooling advection. The 65.5% market-implied probability on 14°C reflects trader weighting of the upper end of this narrow forecast range, while the combined 34% on 13°C and 15°C captures residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind timing ahead of the next front. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine the final observed maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$12,468End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent MetService forecasts and supporting model guidance point to a maximum of 13–14°C in Wellington on September 9 under a building high-pressure ridge, with light variable winds shifting to northerlies by afternoon and mostly clear skies. Spring climatology for the region centers on 13–15°C daytime highs, and current ensemble runs show limited spread around these values, with minimal risk of stronger warming or cooling advection. The 65.5% market-implied probability on 14°C reflects trader weighting of the upper end of this narrow forecast range, while the combined 34% on 13°C and 15°C captures residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind timing ahead of the next front. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine the final observed maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,468End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent MetService forecasts and supporting model guidance point to a maximum of 13–14°C in Wellington on September 9 under a building high-pressure ridge, with light variable winds shifting to northerlies by afternoon and mostly clear skies. Spring climatology for the region centers on 13–15°C daytime highs, and current ensemble runs show limited spread around these values, with minimal risk of stronger warming or cooling advection. The 65.5% market-implied probability on 14°C reflects trader weighting of the upper end of this narrow forecast range, while the combined 34% on 13°C and 15°C captures residual uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind timing ahead of the next front. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine the final observed maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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