Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a southwesterly flow advecting warmer, more humid air into the New York metro area on September 10, supporting daily maximum temperatures in the mid-80s. Surface observations from LaGuardia and surrounding stations show recent highs near 80–82°F under partly cloudy skies, while climatological baselines for early September average 78°F. Key variables differentiating the tightly clustered 84–87°F market bins include the precise timing and coverage of afternoon showers or increased cloud cover, which could cap peaks near 84°F, versus clearer intervals allowing readings to reach 86–87°F. Updated model runs and NHC-adjacent regional forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on September 10?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 10?
82-83°F 31%
84-85°F 29%
86-87°F 29%
80-81°F 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
11%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
29%
86-87°F
29%
88-89°F
17%
90-91°F
10%
92-93°F
15%
94°F or higher
3%
82-83°F 31%
84-85°F 29%
86-87°F 29%
80-81°F 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
75°F or below
$0 Vol.
2%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
11%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
21%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
31%
84-85°F
$30 Vol.
29%
86-87°F
$14 Vol.
29%
88-89°F
$69 Vol.
17%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
10%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
15%
94°F or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a southwesterly flow advecting warmer, more humid air into the New York metro area on September 10, supporting daily maximum temperatures in the mid-80s. Surface observations from LaGuardia and surrounding stations show recent highs near 80–82°F under partly cloudy skies, while climatological baselines for early September average 78°F. Key variables differentiating the tightly clustered 84–87°F market bins include the precise timing and coverage of afternoon showers or increased cloud cover, which could cap peaks near 84°F, versus clearer intervals allowing readings to reach 86–87°F. Updated model runs and NHC-adjacent regional forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 2:55 AM ET
Volume
$113End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 2:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a southwesterly flow advecting warmer, more humid air into the New York metro area on September 10, supporting daily maximum temperatures in the mid-80s. Surface observations from LaGuardia and surrounding stations show recent highs near 80–82°F under partly cloudy skies, while climatological baselines for early September average 78°F. Key variables differentiating the tightly clustered 84–87°F market bins include the precise timing and coverage of afternoon showers or increased cloud cover, which could cap peaks near 84°F, versus clearer intervals allowing readings to reach 86–87°F. Updated model runs and NHC-adjacent regional forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$113End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 2:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a southwesterly flow advecting warmer, more humid air into the New York metro area on September 10, supporting daily maximum temperatures in the mid-80s. Surface observations from LaGuardia and surrounding stations show recent highs near 80–82°F under partly cloudy skies, while climatological baselines for early September average 78°F. Key variables differentiating the tightly clustered 84–87°F market bins include the precise timing and coverage of afternoon showers or increased cloud cover, which could cap peaks near 84°F, versus clearer intervals allowing readings to reach 86–87°F. Updated model runs and NHC-adjacent regional forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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