Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate Shanghai highs on September 8 will likely reach 29–30°C under partly cloudy skies with a 30–60% chance of light rain and northerly winds of 10–15 mph. These conditions support the near-even market split between the two leading outcomes, as cloud cover and any showers could suppress peak readings by 1°C while clearer intervals allow brief warming. September climatology shows typical highs near 29°C, providing a baseline, though current northerly flow from higher latitudes adds modest cooling relative to southerly patterns. Updated model guidance expected overnight will clarify whether daytime heating exceeds the 30°C threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 8?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 8?
30°C 50%
29°C 43%
31°C 7%
27°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
43%
30°C
50%
31°C
7%
32°C
2%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 50%
29°C 43%
31°C 7%
27°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
24°C or below
$286 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$250 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$327 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$365 Vol.
2%
28°C
$1,014 Vol.
2%
29°C
$2,125 Vol.
43%
30°C
$902 Vol.
50%
31°C
$441 Vol.
7%
32°C
$243 Vol.
2%
33°C
$21 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$130 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate Shanghai highs on September 8 will likely reach 29–30°C under partly cloudy skies with a 30–60% chance of light rain and northerly winds of 10–15 mph. These conditions support the near-even market split between the two leading outcomes, as cloud cover and any showers could suppress peak readings by 1°C while clearer intervals allow brief warming. September climatology shows typical highs near 29°C, providing a baseline, though current northerly flow from higher latitudes adds modest cooling relative to southerly patterns. Updated model guidance expected overnight will clarify whether daytime heating exceeds the 30°C threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$6,105End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate Shanghai highs on September 8 will likely reach 29–30°C under partly cloudy skies with a 30–60% chance of light rain and northerly winds of 10–15 mph. These conditions support the near-even market split between the two leading outcomes, as cloud cover and any showers could suppress peak readings by 1°C while clearer intervals allow brief warming. September climatology shows typical highs near 29°C, providing a baseline, though current northerly flow from higher latitudes adds modest cooling relative to southerly patterns. Updated model guidance expected overnight will clarify whether daytime heating exceeds the 30°C threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,105End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs, indicate Shanghai highs on September 8 will likely reach 29–30°C under partly cloudy skies with a 30–60% chance of light rain and northerly winds of 10–15 mph. These conditions support the near-even market split between the two leading outcomes, as cloud cover and any showers could suppress peak readings by 1°C while clearer intervals allow brief warming. September climatology shows typical highs near 29°C, providing a baseline, though current northerly flow from higher latitudes adds modest cooling relative to southerly patterns. Updated model guidance expected overnight will clarify whether daytime heating exceeds the 30°C threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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