Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a warm overnight period for New York City on September 10, with the lowest temperature expected near 74–75 °F. Southerly flow ahead of a weak frontal boundary, elevated dew points near 70 °F, and increasing cloud cover from light rain chances are limiting radiational cooling and holding minimums well above the 1991–2020 average low of 63.5 °F. Ensemble spreads remain modest, but any faster clearing or stronger northerly shift could drop readings several degrees. Trader consensus reflected in the closely bunched probabilities around 74–75 °F (28 %) versus colder or much warmer bins underscores the narrow forecast window and typical late-summer variability in boundary-layer mixing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on September 10?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 10?
67°F or below 48%
86°F or higher 47%
76-77°F 40%
68-69°F 37%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
67°F or below
48%
68-69°F
37%
70-71°F
20%
72-73°F
22%
74-75°F
28%
76-77°F
40%
78-79°F
36%
80-81°F
36%
82-83°F
36%
84-85°F
36%
86°F or higher
47%
67°F or below 48%
86°F or higher 47%
76-77°F 40%
68-69°F 37%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
67°F or below
$0 Vol.
48%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
37%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
20%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
22%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
28%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
40%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
36%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
36%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
36%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
36%
86°F or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a warm overnight period for New York City on September 10, with the lowest temperature expected near 74–75 °F. Southerly flow ahead of a weak frontal boundary, elevated dew points near 70 °F, and increasing cloud cover from light rain chances are limiting radiational cooling and holding minimums well above the 1991–2020 average low of 63.5 °F. Ensemble spreads remain modest, but any faster clearing or stronger northerly shift could drop readings several degrees. Trader consensus reflected in the closely bunched probabilities around 74–75 °F (28 %) versus colder or much warmer bins underscores the narrow forecast window and typical late-summer variability in boundary-layer mixing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a warm overnight period for New York City on September 10, with the lowest temperature expected near 74–75 °F. Southerly flow ahead of a weak frontal boundary, elevated dew points near 70 °F, and increasing cloud cover from light rain chances are limiting radiational cooling and holding minimums well above the 1991–2020 average low of 63.5 °F. Ensemble spreads remain modest, but any faster clearing or stronger northerly shift could drop readings several degrees. Trader consensus reflected in the closely bunched probabilities around 74–75 °F (28 %) versus colder or much warmer bins underscores the narrow forecast window and typical late-summer variability in boundary-layer mixing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to a warm overnight period for New York City on September 10, with the lowest temperature expected near 74–75 °F. Southerly flow ahead of a weak frontal boundary, elevated dew points near 70 °F, and increasing cloud cover from light rain chances are limiting radiational cooling and holding minimums well above the 1991–2020 average low of 63.5 °F. Ensemble spreads remain modest, but any faster clearing or stronger northerly shift could drop readings several degrees. Trader consensus reflected in the closely bunched probabilities around 74–75 °F (28 %) versus colder or much warmer bins underscores the narrow forecast window and typical late-summer variability in boundary-layer mixing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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