**Forecast models from MetService and international agencies point to a highest temperature of 13–14°C in Wellington on September 10, aligning with the market’s leading 52.5% and 39.5% implied probabilities.** A southerly change is expected to deliver widespread rain, strong northwest-to-southerly winds, and increased cloud cover, suppressing daytime warming despite the early-spring seasonal baseline near 14–15°C. Recent model runs show consistent highs around 12–14°C (roughly 54°F), with minimal upside risk from clearing skies. Traders appear to weigh the high probability of persistent onshore flow and precipitation against typical September variability, keeping 15°C or warmer outcomes at just 3.5%. Updated NWP guidance ahead of the event will likely refine these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 10?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 10?
14°C 53%
13°C 40%
12°C 7%
15°C 4%
NEW
$12,149 Vol.
NEW
$12,149 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
2%
12°C
7%
13°C
40%
14°C
53%
15°C
4%
16°C
2%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 53%
13°C 40%
12°C 7%
15°C 4%
NEW
$12,149 Vol.
NEW
$12,149 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
8°C or below
$1,106 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$1,017 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$947 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,856 Vol.
2%
12°C
$2,060 Vol.
7%
13°C
$1,408 Vol.
40%
14°C
$1,640 Vol.
53%
15°C
$881 Vol.
4%
16°C
$504 Vol.
2%
17°C
$361 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$369 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from MetService and international agencies point to a highest temperature of 13–14°C in Wellington on September 10, aligning with the market’s leading 52.5% and 39.5% implied probabilities.** A southerly change is expected to deliver widespread rain, strong northwest-to-southerly winds, and increased cloud cover, suppressing daytime warming despite the early-spring seasonal baseline near 14–15°C. Recent model runs show consistent highs around 12–14°C (roughly 54°F), with minimal upside risk from clearing skies. Traders appear to weigh the high probability of persistent onshore flow and precipitation against typical September variability, keeping 15°C or warmer outcomes at just 3.5%. Updated NWP guidance ahead of the event will likely refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$12,149End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from MetService and international agencies point to a highest temperature of 13–14°C in Wellington on September 10, aligning with the market’s leading 52.5% and 39.5% implied probabilities.** A southerly change is expected to deliver widespread rain, strong northwest-to-southerly winds, and increased cloud cover, suppressing daytime warming despite the early-spring seasonal baseline near 14–15°C. Recent model runs show consistent highs around 12–14°C (roughly 54°F), with minimal upside risk from clearing skies. Traders appear to weigh the high probability of persistent onshore flow and precipitation against typical September variability, keeping 15°C or warmer outcomes at just 3.5%. Updated NWP guidance ahead of the event will likely refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,149End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from MetService and international agencies point to a highest temperature of 13–14°C in Wellington on September 10, aligning with the market’s leading 52.5% and 39.5% implied probabilities.** A southerly change is expected to deliver widespread rain, strong northwest-to-southerly winds, and increased cloud cover, suppressing daytime warming despite the early-spring seasonal baseline near 14–15°C. Recent model runs show consistent highs around 12–14°C (roughly 54°F), with minimal upside risk from clearing skies. Traders appear to weigh the high probability of persistent onshore flow and precipitation against typical September variability, keeping 15°C or warmer outcomes at just 3.5%. Updated NWP guidance ahead of the event will likely refine these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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