**Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 4–8°C lows for Wellington on September 9 because ensemble forecasts show a narrow range of overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies and moderate northwesterly flow.** Current model runs indicate minimum temperatures near 7–9°C at Wellington International Airport, with some guidance dipping lower if winds ease overnight and allow stronger surface cooling. Recent observations on September 8 recorded lows near 6–8°C amid variable cloud and light easterly winds shifting northerly, consistent with early-spring conditions where daily minima typically fall in the 5–10°C band. Key differentiating factors include the exact timing of any cloud breaks, wind speeds above 15–20 km/h that limit cooling, and localized urban heat-island effects versus airport readings. New high-resolution model updates and official MetService guidance expected overnight will likely refine probabilities before the market resolves on verified minimum observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 9?
7°C 50%
10°C 49%
6°C 27%
5°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
2°C or below
1%
3°C
1%
4°C
27%
5°C
27%
6°C
27%
7°C
27%
8°C
27%
9°C
25%
10°C
49%
11°C
1%
12°C or higher
1%
7°C 50%
10°C 49%
6°C 27%
5°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
2°C or below
$103 Vol.
1%
3°C
$182 Vol.
1%
4°C
$42 Vol.
27%
5°C
$0 Vol.
27%
6°C
$40 Vol.
27%
7°C
$6 Vol.
27%
8°C
$0 Vol.
27%
9°C
$73 Vol.
25%
10°C
$75 Vol.
49%
11°C
$57 Vol.
1%
12°C or higher
$42 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 4–8°C lows for Wellington on September 9 because ensemble forecasts show a narrow range of overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies and moderate northwesterly flow.** Current model runs indicate minimum temperatures near 7–9°C at Wellington International Airport, with some guidance dipping lower if winds ease overnight and allow stronger surface cooling. Recent observations on September 8 recorded lows near 6–8°C amid variable cloud and light easterly winds shifting northerly, consistent with early-spring conditions where daily minima typically fall in the 5–10°C band. Key differentiating factors include the exact timing of any cloud breaks, wind speeds above 15–20 km/h that limit cooling, and localized urban heat-island effects versus airport readings. New high-resolution model updates and official MetService guidance expected overnight will likely refine probabilities before the market resolves on verified minimum observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$621End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 4–8°C lows for Wellington on September 9 because ensemble forecasts show a narrow range of overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies and moderate northwesterly flow.** Current model runs indicate minimum temperatures near 7–9°C at Wellington International Airport, with some guidance dipping lower if winds ease overnight and allow stronger surface cooling. Recent observations on September 8 recorded lows near 6–8°C amid variable cloud and light easterly winds shifting northerly, consistent with early-spring conditions where daily minima typically fall in the 5–10°C band. Key differentiating factors include the exact timing of any cloud breaks, wind speeds above 15–20 km/h that limit cooling, and localized urban heat-island effects versus airport readings. New high-resolution model updates and official MetService guidance expected overnight will likely refine probabilities before the market resolves on verified minimum observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$621End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 4–8°C lows for Wellington on September 9 because ensemble forecasts show a narrow range of overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies and moderate northwesterly flow.** Current model runs indicate minimum temperatures near 7–9°C at Wellington International Airport, with some guidance dipping lower if winds ease overnight and allow stronger surface cooling. Recent observations on September 8 recorded lows near 6–8°C amid variable cloud and light easterly winds shifting northerly, consistent with early-spring conditions where daily minima typically fall in the 5–10°C band. Key differentiating factors include the exact timing of any cloud breaks, wind speeds above 15–20 km/h that limit cooling, and localized urban heat-island effects versus airport readings. New high-resolution model updates and official MetService guidance expected overnight will likely refine probabilities before the market resolves on verified minimum observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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