Recent forecast consensus from MetService and international models points to a minimum temperature of 7–9 °C in Wellington on 10 September, driven by persistent southerly flow advecting cooler maritime air while extensive cloud cover and light rain limit radiational cooling overnight. Surface observations at Wellington Airport show temperatures holding near 9 °C amid 25–30 kt southerly winds, consistent with ensemble guidance that places the daily low in this narrow band rather than colder outliers. Historical September minima average around 7–8 °C, providing context for why traders assign roughly equal implied probabilities to 8 °C and 9 °C. The next official minimum will be confirmed by MetService’s 24-hour reporting cycle once the overnight period ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 10?
8°C 49%
7°C 46%
3°C or below 1.0%
4°C 1.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
3°C or below
1%
4°C
1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
46%
8°C
49%
9°C
51%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C or higher
<1%
8°C 49%
7°C 46%
3°C or below 1.0%
4°C 1.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
3°C or below
$101 Vol.
1%
4°C
$66 Vol.
1%
5°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$122 Vol.
1%
7°C
$62 Vol.
46%
8°C
$0 Vol.
49%
9°C
$10 Vol.
51%
10°C
$72 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$28 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$3 Vol.
<1%
13°C or higher
$80 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from MetService and international models points to a minimum temperature of 7–9 °C in Wellington on 10 September, driven by persistent southerly flow advecting cooler maritime air while extensive cloud cover and light rain limit radiational cooling overnight. Surface observations at Wellington Airport show temperatures holding near 9 °C amid 25–30 kt southerly winds, consistent with ensemble guidance that places the daily low in this narrow band rather than colder outliers. Historical September minima average around 7–8 °C, providing context for why traders assign roughly equal implied probabilities to 8 °C and 9 °C. The next official minimum will be confirmed by MetService’s 24-hour reporting cycle once the overnight period ends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$547End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from MetService and international models points to a minimum temperature of 7–9 °C in Wellington on 10 September, driven by persistent southerly flow advecting cooler maritime air while extensive cloud cover and light rain limit radiational cooling overnight. Surface observations at Wellington Airport show temperatures holding near 9 °C amid 25–30 kt southerly winds, consistent with ensemble guidance that places the daily low in this narrow band rather than colder outliers. Historical September minima average around 7–8 °C, providing context for why traders assign roughly equal implied probabilities to 8 °C and 9 °C. The next official minimum will be confirmed by MetService’s 24-hour reporting cycle once the overnight period ends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$547End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from MetService and international models points to a minimum temperature of 7–9 °C in Wellington on 10 September, driven by persistent southerly flow advecting cooler maritime air while extensive cloud cover and light rain limit radiational cooling overnight. Surface observations at Wellington Airport show temperatures holding near 9 °C amid 25–30 kt southerly winds, consistent with ensemble guidance that places the daily low in this narrow band rather than colder outliers. Historical September minima average around 7–8 °C, providing context for why traders assign roughly equal implied probabilities to 8 °C and 9 °C. The next official minimum will be confirmed by MetService’s 24-hour reporting cycle once the overnight period ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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