Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate Beijing will experience clearing skies and light northerly winds on September 10 after localized rainfall on the 8th, supporting a daily maximum near 29–30 °C. Ensemble guidance shows minimal spread around this range, with dry air and modest diurnal warming under high pressure limiting deviations above 31 °C or below 28 °C. These conditions align with early-September climatology for the region, where post-frontal stabilization typically produces such readings. Market-implied probabilities reflect this model consensus, with traders weighting the 29–30 °C outcomes most heavily ahead of official station verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on September 10?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 10?
30°C 42%
29°C 30%
28°C 12%
31°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
24°C or below
2%
25°C
3%
26°C
4%
27°C
5%
28°C
12%
29°C
30%
30°C
42%
31°C
9%
32°C
3%
33°C
4%
34°C or higher
3%
30°C 42%
29°C 30%
28°C 12%
31°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
24°C or below
$100 Vol.
2%
25°C
$12 Vol.
3%
26°C
$0 Vol.
4%
27°C
$43 Vol.
5%
28°C
$9 Vol.
12%
29°C
$105 Vol.
30%
30°C
$49 Vol.
42%
31°C
$49 Vol.
9%
32°C
$0 Vol.
3%
33°C
$12 Vol.
4%
34°C or higher
$27 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate Beijing will experience clearing skies and light northerly winds on September 10 after localized rainfall on the 8th, supporting a daily maximum near 29–30 °C. Ensemble guidance shows minimal spread around this range, with dry air and modest diurnal warming under high pressure limiting deviations above 31 °C or below 28 °C. These conditions align with early-September climatology for the region, where post-frontal stabilization typically produces such readings. Market-implied probabilities reflect this model consensus, with traders weighting the 29–30 °C outcomes most heavily ahead of official station verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$405End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate Beijing will experience clearing skies and light northerly winds on September 10 after localized rainfall on the 8th, supporting a daily maximum near 29–30 °C. Ensemble guidance shows minimal spread around this range, with dry air and modest diurnal warming under high pressure limiting deviations above 31 °C or below 28 °C. These conditions align with early-September climatology for the region, where post-frontal stabilization typically produces such readings. Market-implied probabilities reflect this model consensus, with traders weighting the 29–30 °C outcomes most heavily ahead of official station verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$405End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate Beijing will experience clearing skies and light northerly winds on September 10 after localized rainfall on the 8th, supporting a daily maximum near 29–30 °C. Ensemble guidance shows minimal spread around this range, with dry air and modest diurnal warming under high pressure limiting deviations above 31 °C or below 28 °C. These conditions align with early-September climatology for the region, where post-frontal stabilization typically produces such readings. Market-implied probabilities reflect this model consensus, with traders weighting the 29–30 °C outcomes most heavily ahead of official station verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions