Persistent southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico and a warm, humid air mass are keeping overnight lows elevated in Houston on September 12, 2026, with official forecasts from the National Weather Service showing the temperature bottoming out near 80–81°F amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. This pattern, reinforced by high pressure to the east steering tropical moisture, has limited radiative cooling and produced heat indices above 105°F during the day, consistent with the current market-implied odds heavily favoring the 80–81°F bin. Historical averages near 73°F highlight the anomaly, driven by the absence of any frontal passage or clearer conditions that would allow sharper drops. Updated model runs and evening observations will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Houston on September 12?
80-81°F 96%
76-77°F 11%
74-75°F 9%
72-73°F 6%
$402 Vol.
$402 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
71°F or below
2%
72-73°F
6%
74-75°F
9%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
50%
80-81°F
86%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 96%
76-77°F 11%
74-75°F 9%
72-73°F 6%
$402 Vol.
$402 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
71°F or below
$0 Vol.
2%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
6%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
9%
76-77°F
$28 Vol.
11%
78-79°F
$112 Vol.
50%
80-81°F
$180 Vol.
86%
82-83°F
$82 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico and a warm, humid air mass are keeping overnight lows elevated in Houston on September 12, 2026, with official forecasts from the National Weather Service showing the temperature bottoming out near 80–81°F amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. This pattern, reinforced by high pressure to the east steering tropical moisture, has limited radiative cooling and produced heat indices above 105°F during the day, consistent with the current market-implied odds heavily favoring the 80–81°F bin. Historical averages near 73°F highlight the anomaly, driven by the absence of any frontal passage or clearer conditions that would allow sharper drops. Updated model runs and evening observations will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$402End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico and a warm, humid air mass are keeping overnight lows elevated in Houston on September 12, 2026, with official forecasts from the National Weather Service showing the temperature bottoming out near 80–81°F amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. This pattern, reinforced by high pressure to the east steering tropical moisture, has limited radiative cooling and produced heat indices above 105°F during the day, consistent with the current market-implied odds heavily favoring the 80–81°F bin. Historical averages near 73°F highlight the anomaly, driven by the absence of any frontal passage or clearer conditions that would allow sharper drops. Updated model runs and evening observations will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$402End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico and a warm, humid air mass are keeping overnight lows elevated in Houston on September 12, 2026, with official forecasts from the National Weather Service showing the temperature bottoming out near 80–81°F amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. This pattern, reinforced by high pressure to the east steering tropical moisture, has limited radiative cooling and produced heat indices above 105°F during the day, consistent with the current market-implied odds heavily favoring the 80–81°F bin. Historical averages near 73°F highlight the anomaly, driven by the absence of any frontal passage or clearer conditions that would allow sharper drops. Updated model runs and evening observations will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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