**Trader consensus strongly favors a 6°C low in Wellington on September 12, reflecting model consensus from agencies like MetService and international forecasts showing clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds overnight that promote efficient radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure ridge.** Current observations and short-range guidance indicate minimum temperatures settling near this threshold after daytime highs around 13–14°C, consistent with early-spring climatology for the region where September overnight lows typically range 6–9°C. Key drivers include northerly flow transitioning to calmer conditions and dew points supporting minimal cloud interference. Uncertainties remain modest but could arise from a last-minute increase in low-level cloud or a shift in wind direction bringing slightly warmer marine air, potentially lifting the minimum by 1–2°C if model runs diverge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 12?
6°C 100.0%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
7°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
100%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C or higher
<1%
6°C 100.0%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
7°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
4°C or below
$153 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$22 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$105 Vol.
100%
7°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$112 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$191 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$235 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
14°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 6°C low in Wellington on September 12, reflecting model consensus from agencies like MetService and international forecasts showing clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds overnight that promote efficient radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure ridge.**
Current observations and short-range guidance indicate minimum temperatures settling near this threshold after daytime highs around 13–14°C, consistent with early-spring climatology for the region where September overnight lows typically range 6–9°C. Key drivers include northerly flow transitioning to calmer conditions and dew points supporting minimal cloud interference.
Uncertainties remain modest but could arise from a last-minute increase in low-level cloud or a shift in wind direction bringing slightly warmer marine air, potentially lifting the minimum by 1–2°C if model runs diverge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$877End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 6°C low in Wellington on September 12, reflecting model consensus from agencies like MetService and international forecasts showing clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds overnight that promote efficient radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure ridge.**
Current observations and short-range guidance indicate minimum temperatures settling near this threshold after daytime highs around 13–14°C, consistent with early-spring climatology for the region where September overnight lows typically range 6–9°C. Key drivers include northerly flow transitioning to calmer conditions and dew points supporting minimal cloud interference.
Uncertainties remain modest but could arise from a last-minute increase in low-level cloud or a shift in wind direction bringing slightly warmer marine air, potentially lifting the minimum by 1–2°C if model runs diverge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$877End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors a 6°C low in Wellington on September 12, reflecting model consensus from agencies like MetService and international forecasts showing clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds overnight that promote efficient radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure ridge.** Current observations and short-range guidance indicate minimum temperatures settling near this threshold after daytime highs around 13–14°C, consistent with early-spring climatology for the region where September overnight lows typically range 6–9°C. Key drivers include northerly flow transitioning to calmer conditions and dew points supporting minimal cloud interference. Uncertainties remain modest but could arise from a last-minute increase in low-level cloud or a shift in wind direction bringing slightly warmer marine air, potentially lifting the minimum by 1–2°C if model runs diverge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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