Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show a cooling trend positioning 22°C as the most probable daily maximum for Istanbul on September 14. Northerly winds and increased cloud cover with light shower chances are limiting daytime heating after warmer conditions earlier in the week. Multiple forecasts converge on highs of 22–24°C, with 23°C as a secondary possibility if skies clear earlier. Trader consensus at 61% for 22°C and 23.5% for 23°C reflects this model agreement, while lower probabilities for 21°C or below account for potential heavier rain or stronger winds suppressing temperatures further. Updated model outputs over the next 24–48 hours could refine the exact peak before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 14?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 14?
22°C 61%
23°C 24%
21°C 17%
20°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
18°C or below
7%
19°C
6%
20°C
10%
21°C
17%
22°C
61%
23°C
24%
24°C
8%
25°C
7%
26°C
5%
27°C
4%
28°C or higher
8%
22°C 61%
23°C 24%
21°C 17%
20°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
7%
19°C
$0 Vol.
6%
20°C
$0 Vol.
10%
21°C
$4 Vol.
17%
22°C
$200 Vol.
61%
23°C
$79 Vol.
24%
24°C
$0 Vol.
8%
25°C
$0 Vol.
7%
26°C
$0 Vol.
5%
27°C
$0 Vol.
4%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show a cooling trend positioning 22°C as the most probable daily maximum for Istanbul on September 14. Northerly winds and increased cloud cover with light shower chances are limiting daytime heating after warmer conditions earlier in the week. Multiple forecasts converge on highs of 22–24°C, with 23°C as a secondary possibility if skies clear earlier. Trader consensus at 61% for 22°C and 23.5% for 23°C reflects this model agreement, while lower probabilities for 21°C or below account for potential heavier rain or stronger winds suppressing temperatures further. Updated model outputs over the next 24–48 hours could refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$282End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show a cooling trend positioning 22°C as the most probable daily maximum for Istanbul on September 14. Northerly winds and increased cloud cover with light shower chances are limiting daytime heating after warmer conditions earlier in the week. Multiple forecasts converge on highs of 22–24°C, with 23°C as a secondary possibility if skies clear earlier. Trader consensus at 61% for 22°C and 23.5% for 23°C reflects this model agreement, while lower probabilities for 21°C or below account for potential heavier rain or stronger winds suppressing temperatures further. Updated model outputs over the next 24–48 hours could refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$282End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, show a cooling trend positioning 22°C as the most probable daily maximum for Istanbul on September 14. Northerly winds and increased cloud cover with light shower chances are limiting daytime heating after warmer conditions earlier in the week. Multiple forecasts converge on highs of 22–24°C, with 23°C as a secondary possibility if skies clear earlier. Trader consensus at 61% for 22°C and 23.5% for 23°C reflects this model agreement, while lower probabilities for 21°C or below account for potential heavier rain or stronger winds suppressing temperatures further. Updated model outputs over the next 24–48 hours could refine the exact peak before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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