**Recent forecast updates for Istanbul show a frontal system approaching on September 14, introducing notable uncertainty in overnight minimum temperatures.** Model runs from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate daytime highs near 23–24°C with scattered showers possible, while overnight lows are projected between roughly 15–19°C depending on cloud cover, wind direction from the north-northwest, and precipitation timing. This spread creates balanced market-implied odds, with 14°C or below and 24°C or higher both near 42% as traders weigh the potential for stronger cooling versus milder conditions under partial clearing. Historical September climatology for the region features typical minima around 17–18°C, but current steering patterns and moisture could shift the outcome either way before resolution. Updated model guidance and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 14?
14°C or below 93%
24°C or higher 89%
15°C 40%
16°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
14°C or below
93%
15°C
40%
16°C
40%
17°C
22%
18°C
22%
19°C
22%
20°C
22%
21°C
40%
22°C
40%
23°C
40%
24°C or higher
89%
14°C or below 93%
24°C or higher 89%
15°C 40%
16°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
93%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C
$0 Vol.
40%
17°C
$0 Vol.
22%
18°C
$0 Vol.
22%
19°C
$0 Vol.
22%
20°C
$0 Vol.
22%
21°C
$0 Vol.
40%
22°C
$0 Vol.
40%
23°C
$0 Vol.
40%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast updates for Istanbul show a frontal system approaching on September 14, introducing notable uncertainty in overnight minimum temperatures.** Model runs from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate daytime highs near 23–24°C with scattered showers possible, while overnight lows are projected between roughly 15–19°C depending on cloud cover, wind direction from the north-northwest, and precipitation timing. This spread creates balanced market-implied odds, with 14°C or below and 24°C or higher both near 42% as traders weigh the potential for stronger cooling versus milder conditions under partial clearing. Historical September climatology for the region features typical minima around 17–18°C, but current steering patterns and moisture could shift the outcome either way before resolution. Updated model guidance and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecast updates for Istanbul show a frontal system approaching on September 14, introducing notable uncertainty in overnight minimum temperatures.** Model runs from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate daytime highs near 23–24°C with scattered showers possible, while overnight lows are projected between roughly 15–19°C depending on cloud cover, wind direction from the north-northwest, and precipitation timing. This spread creates balanced market-implied odds, with 14°C or below and 24°C or higher both near 42% as traders weigh the potential for stronger cooling versus milder conditions under partial clearing. Historical September climatology for the region features typical minima around 17–18°C, but current steering patterns and moisture could shift the outcome either way before resolution. Updated model guidance and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecast updates for Istanbul show a frontal system approaching on September 14, introducing notable uncertainty in overnight minimum temperatures.** Model runs from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate daytime highs near 23–24°C with scattered showers possible, while overnight lows are projected between roughly 15–19°C depending on cloud cover, wind direction from the north-northwest, and precipitation timing. This spread creates balanced market-implied odds, with 14°C or below and 24°C or higher both near 42% as traders weigh the potential for stronger cooling versus milder conditions under partial clearing. Historical September climatology for the region features typical minima around 17–18°C, but current steering patterns and moisture could shift the outcome either way before resolution. Updated model guidance and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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