**Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature in Istanbul of 19–21°C overnight into September 12, 2026, under clear to mostly clear skies with light northeast winds of 5–10 mph.** This setup favors moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 28–29°C, consistent with typical early-September Mediterranean conditions moderated by the Bosphorus and Black Sea. Trader sentiment clusters near 20–21°C outcomes because ensemble guidance shows only modest spread in nocturnal minimums, with no incoming frontal systems or significant cloud cover to alter the cooling rate. Lower-probability cooler outcomes reflect residual model uncertainty around exact wind speeds or localized urban heat effects, while warmer thresholds remain negligible given the established high-pressure regime. Updated observations through the evening will refine the precise low before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 12?
14°C or below 100%
18°C 100%
15°C 99%
16°C 99%
$375 Vol.
$375 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
14°C or below
100%
15°C
99%
16°C
99%
17°C
99%
18°C
100%
19°C
92%
20°C
-
21°C
51%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
14°C or below 100%
18°C 100%
15°C 99%
16°C 99%
$375 Vol.
$375 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
15°C
$0 Vol.
99%
16°C
$0 Vol.
99%
17°C
$135 Vol.
99%
18°C
$135 Vol.
100%
19°C
$67 Vol.
92%
20°C
$5 Vol.
-
21°C
$3 Vol.
51%
22°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature in Istanbul of 19–21°C overnight into September 12, 2026, under clear to mostly clear skies with light northeast winds of 5–10 mph.**
This setup favors moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 28–29°C, consistent with typical early-September Mediterranean conditions moderated by the Bosphorus and Black Sea. Trader sentiment clusters near 20–21°C outcomes because ensemble guidance shows only modest spread in nocturnal minimums, with no incoming frontal systems or significant cloud cover to alter the cooling rate. Lower-probability cooler outcomes reflect residual model uncertainty around exact wind speeds or localized urban heat effects, while warmer thresholds remain negligible given the established high-pressure regime. Updated observations through the evening will refine the precise low before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$375End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature in Istanbul of 19–21°C overnight into September 12, 2026, under clear to mostly clear skies with light northeast winds of 5–10 mph.**
This setup favors moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 28–29°C, consistent with typical early-September Mediterranean conditions moderated by the Bosphorus and Black Sea. Trader sentiment clusters near 20–21°C outcomes because ensemble guidance shows only modest spread in nocturnal minimums, with no incoming frontal systems or significant cloud cover to alter the cooling rate. Lower-probability cooler outcomes reflect residual model uncertainty around exact wind speeds or localized urban heat effects, while warmer thresholds remain negligible given the established high-pressure regime. Updated observations through the evening will refine the precise low before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$375End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature in Istanbul of 19–21°C overnight into September 12, 2026, under clear to mostly clear skies with light northeast winds of 5–10 mph.** This setup favors moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs near 28–29°C, consistent with typical early-September Mediterranean conditions moderated by the Bosphorus and Black Sea. Trader sentiment clusters near 20–21°C outcomes because ensemble guidance shows only modest spread in nocturnal minimums, with no incoming frontal systems or significant cloud cover to alter the cooling rate. Lower-probability cooler outcomes reflect residual model uncertainty around exact wind speeds or localized urban heat effects, while warmer thresholds remain negligible given the established high-pressure regime. Updated observations through the evening will refine the precise low before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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