A cool front advancing across central Europe is the dominant driver behind current market-implied odds favoring 19–20 °C as Warsaw’s highest temperature on September 10. Official and ensemble model guidance from sources including the ECMWF and GFS shows the front bringing widespread cloud cover, light rain, and west-to-northwest winds of 15–25 km/h, limiting daytime heating after today’s 27–28 °C peak. Morning temperatures near 14–15 °C will rise slowly under overcast skies, with most guidance converging on afternoon maxima of 18–20 °C. Historical September climatology for Warsaw places the 10th near 18–19 °C, reinforcing trader positioning around these values ahead of final observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 10?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 10?
19°C 43%
20°C 32%
18°C 17%
21°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
15°C or below
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
3%
18°C
17%
19°C
43%
20°C
32%
21°C
6%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
19°C 43%
20°C 32%
18°C 17%
21°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
15°C or below
$115 Vol.
1%
16°C
$219 Vol.
2%
17°C
$25 Vol.
3%
18°C
$1,074 Vol.
17%
19°C
$1,588 Vol.
43%
20°C
$1,191 Vol.
32%
21°C
$869 Vol.
6%
22°C
$153 Vol.
2%
23°C
$173 Vol.
1%
24°C
$200 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$372 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cool front advancing across central Europe is the dominant driver behind current market-implied odds favoring 19–20 °C as Warsaw’s highest temperature on September 10. Official and ensemble model guidance from sources including the ECMWF and GFS shows the front bringing widespread cloud cover, light rain, and west-to-northwest winds of 15–25 km/h, limiting daytime heating after today’s 27–28 °C peak. Morning temperatures near 14–15 °C will rise slowly under overcast skies, with most guidance converging on afternoon maxima of 18–20 °C. Historical September climatology for Warsaw places the 10th near 18–19 °C, reinforcing trader positioning around these values ahead of final observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$5,979End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cool front advancing across central Europe is the dominant driver behind current market-implied odds favoring 19–20 °C as Warsaw’s highest temperature on September 10. Official and ensemble model guidance from sources including the ECMWF and GFS shows the front bringing widespread cloud cover, light rain, and west-to-northwest winds of 15–25 km/h, limiting daytime heating after today’s 27–28 °C peak. Morning temperatures near 14–15 °C will rise slowly under overcast skies, with most guidance converging on afternoon maxima of 18–20 °C. Historical September climatology for Warsaw places the 10th near 18–19 °C, reinforcing trader positioning around these values ahead of final observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,979End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...A cool front advancing across central Europe is the dominant driver behind current market-implied odds favoring 19–20 °C as Warsaw’s highest temperature on September 10. Official and ensemble model guidance from sources including the ECMWF and GFS shows the front bringing widespread cloud cover, light rain, and west-to-northwest winds of 15–25 km/h, limiting daytime heating after today’s 27–28 °C peak. Morning temperatures near 14–15 °C will rise slowly under overcast skies, with most guidance converging on afternoon maxima of 18–20 °C. Historical September climatology for Warsaw places the 10th near 18–19 °C, reinforcing trader positioning around these values ahead of final observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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