Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to a shift from warm southerly flow on September 9 to westerly advection of cooler maritime air on the 10th, with daytime highs near 18–20°C and overnight radiative cooling under partly to mostly clear skies supporting a minimum near 10–12°C. Variable low-level cloud cover and wind speeds around 3–6 m/s could limit or enhance surface heat loss, creating the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 9–12°C. Updated runs overnight and early on the 10th will refine dew point depressions and boundary layer mixing, key variables for traders assessing the exact low before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 10?
9°C or below 30%
11°C 29%
12°C 28%
13°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
9°C or below
30%
10°C
24%
11°C
29%
12°C
28%
13°C
20%
14°C
9%
15°C
10%
16°C
8%
17°C
11%
18°C
11%
19°C or higher
8%
9°C or below 30%
11°C 29%
12°C 28%
13°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
30%
10°C
$0 Vol.
24%
11°C
$0 Vol.
29%
12°C
$0 Vol.
28%
13°C
$4 Vol.
20%
14°C
$0 Vol.
9%
15°C
$43 Vol.
10%
16°C
$20 Vol.
8%
17°C
$35 Vol.
11%
18°C
$25 Vol.
11%
19°C or higher
$50 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to a shift from warm southerly flow on September 9 to westerly advection of cooler maritime air on the 10th, with daytime highs near 18–20°C and overnight radiative cooling under partly to mostly clear skies supporting a minimum near 10–12°C. Variable low-level cloud cover and wind speeds around 3–6 m/s could limit or enhance surface heat loss, creating the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 9–12°C. Updated runs overnight and early on the 10th will refine dew point depressions and boundary layer mixing, key variables for traders assessing the exact low before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$177End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to a shift from warm southerly flow on September 9 to westerly advection of cooler maritime air on the 10th, with daytime highs near 18–20°C and overnight radiative cooling under partly to mostly clear skies supporting a minimum near 10–12°C. Variable low-level cloud cover and wind speeds around 3–6 m/s could limit or enhance surface heat loss, creating the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 9–12°C. Updated runs overnight and early on the 10th will refine dew point depressions and boundary layer mixing, key variables for traders assessing the exact low before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$177End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from sources like GFS and ECMWF points to a shift from warm southerly flow on September 9 to westerly advection of cooler maritime air on the 10th, with daytime highs near 18–20°C and overnight radiative cooling under partly to mostly clear skies supporting a minimum near 10–12°C. Variable low-level cloud cover and wind speeds around 3–6 m/s could limit or enhance surface heat loss, creating the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 9–12°C. Updated runs overnight and early on the 10th will refine dew point depressions and boundary layer mixing, key variables for traders assessing the exact low before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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