Recent cool air advection behind an autumn rain front, combined with widespread cloud cover and scattered showers, has kept overnight radiative cooling limited in Tokyo, anchoring the September 12 minimum near 20–21°C according to JMA and ensemble guidance. Persistent northerly flow and high humidity further suppress temperature drops, consistent with the recent 17.7°C reading on the 10th and seasonal norms around 20.7°C. Model spread arises mainly from variable shower timing and cloud thickness, which could shift the low by 1–2°C either way before resolution. Traders see the tight 20–21°C clustering as reflecting this narrow uncertainty band in official forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 12?
20°C 42%
21°C 36%
18°C 19%
22°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
16°C or below
2%
17°C
18%
18°C
19%
19°C
16%
20°C
42%
21°C
36%
22°C
19%
23°C
16%
24°C
2%
25°C
16%
26°C or higher
2%
20°C 42%
21°C 36%
18°C 19%
22°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
17°C
$0 Vol.
18%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C
$87 Vol.
16%
20°C
$152 Vol.
42%
21°C
$80 Vol.
36%
22°C
$0 Vol.
19%
23°C
$0 Vol.
16%
24°C
$0 Vol.
2%
25°C
$0 Vol.
16%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cool air advection behind an autumn rain front, combined with widespread cloud cover and scattered showers, has kept overnight radiative cooling limited in Tokyo, anchoring the September 12 minimum near 20–21°C according to JMA and ensemble guidance. Persistent northerly flow and high humidity further suppress temperature drops, consistent with the recent 17.7°C reading on the 10th and seasonal norms around 20.7°C. Model spread arises mainly from variable shower timing and cloud thickness, which could shift the low by 1–2°C either way before resolution. Traders see the tight 20–21°C clustering as reflecting this narrow uncertainty band in official forecasts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$292End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cool air advection behind an autumn rain front, combined with widespread cloud cover and scattered showers, has kept overnight radiative cooling limited in Tokyo, anchoring the September 12 minimum near 20–21°C according to JMA and ensemble guidance. Persistent northerly flow and high humidity further suppress temperature drops, consistent with the recent 17.7°C reading on the 10th and seasonal norms around 20.7°C. Model spread arises mainly from variable shower timing and cloud thickness, which could shift the low by 1–2°C either way before resolution. Traders see the tight 20–21°C clustering as reflecting this narrow uncertainty band in official forecasts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$292End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cool air advection behind an autumn rain front, combined with widespread cloud cover and scattered showers, has kept overnight radiative cooling limited in Tokyo, anchoring the September 12 minimum near 20–21°C according to JMA and ensemble guidance. Persistent northerly flow and high humidity further suppress temperature drops, consistent with the recent 17.7°C reading on the 10th and seasonal norms around 20.7°C. Model spread arises mainly from variable shower timing and cloud thickness, which could shift the low by 1–2°C either way before resolution. Traders see the tight 20–21°C clustering as reflecting this narrow uncertainty band in official forecasts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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