Recent monsoon-driven convective activity and associated cloud cover over Uttar Pradesh are the main factors keeping trader-implied odds clustered on 33–34 °C for Lucknow’s September 10 maximum. Official short-range guidance from the India Meteorological Department and global models (GFS, ECMWF) show partly cloudy skies with a 40–60 % chance of afternoon thunderstorms, which typically cap daytime heating near 32–34 °C by limiting solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. Historical September climatology for the region places average highs around 33 °C, but day-to-day variability of 2–3 °C is common when steering flows and moisture convergence shift. Fresh model runs and IMD updates expected over the next 24–48 hours will refine the precise timing of any rain bands, directly influencing whether the peak registers at the lower or upper end of the tightly contested 33–34 °C range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on September 10?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on September 10?
34°C 35%
33°C 34%
32°C 16%
31°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
27°C or below
2%
28°C
2%
29°C
3%
30°C
4%
31°C
8%
32°C
16%
33°C
32%
34°C
35%
35°C
8%
36°C
5%
37°C or higher
7%
34°C 35%
33°C 34%
32°C 16%
31°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
27°C or below
$25 Vol.
2%
28°C
$51 Vol.
2%
29°C
$51 Vol.
3%
30°C
$0 Vol.
4%
31°C
$20 Vol.
8%
32°C
$14 Vol.
16%
33°C
$14 Vol.
32%
34°C
$0 Vol.
35%
35°C
$0 Vol.
8%
36°C
$6 Vol.
5%
37°C or higher
$12 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent monsoon-driven convective activity and associated cloud cover over Uttar Pradesh are the main factors keeping trader-implied odds clustered on 33–34 °C for Lucknow’s September 10 maximum. Official short-range guidance from the India Meteorological Department and global models (GFS, ECMWF) show partly cloudy skies with a 40–60 % chance of afternoon thunderstorms, which typically cap daytime heating near 32–34 °C by limiting solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. Historical September climatology for the region places average highs around 33 °C, but day-to-day variability of 2–3 °C is common when steering flows and moisture convergence shift. Fresh model runs and IMD updates expected over the next 24–48 hours will refine the precise timing of any rain bands, directly influencing whether the peak registers at the lower or upper end of the tightly contested 33–34 °C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$193End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent monsoon-driven convective activity and associated cloud cover over Uttar Pradesh are the main factors keeping trader-implied odds clustered on 33–34 °C for Lucknow’s September 10 maximum. Official short-range guidance from the India Meteorological Department and global models (GFS, ECMWF) show partly cloudy skies with a 40–60 % chance of afternoon thunderstorms, which typically cap daytime heating near 32–34 °C by limiting solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. Historical September climatology for the region places average highs around 33 °C, but day-to-day variability of 2–3 °C is common when steering flows and moisture convergence shift. Fresh model runs and IMD updates expected over the next 24–48 hours will refine the precise timing of any rain bands, directly influencing whether the peak registers at the lower or upper end of the tightly contested 33–34 °C range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$193End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monsoon-driven convective activity and associated cloud cover over Uttar Pradesh are the main factors keeping trader-implied odds clustered on 33–34 °C for Lucknow’s September 10 maximum. Official short-range guidance from the India Meteorological Department and global models (GFS, ECMWF) show partly cloudy skies with a 40–60 % chance of afternoon thunderstorms, which typically cap daytime heating near 32–34 °C by limiting solar insolation and enhancing evaporative cooling. Historical September climatology for the region places average highs around 33 °C, but day-to-day variability of 2–3 °C is common when steering flows and moisture convergence shift. Fresh model runs and IMD updates expected over the next 24–48 hours will refine the precise timing of any rain bands, directly influencing whether the peak registers at the lower or upper end of the tightly contested 33–34 °C range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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