Persistent rain and northerly winds associated with a seasonal front are keeping Tokyo's overnight temperatures suppressed, with the Japan Meteorological Agency forecasting a minimum of 18°C on September 11 amid near-continuous showers and high humidity. Multiple model runs and observational data align on lows of 18–19°C, consistent with recent daily minima around 19–20°C amid above-normal precipitation this month. Trader consensus, reflected in the 43% implied probability on 19°C and 21.5% on 18°C, tracks these official guidance products closely, as resolution depends on the verified 24-hour minimum from Tokyo's primary station. Updated model runs overnight and final JMA briefings represent the last key inputs before market settlement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 11?
19°C 46%
20°C 26%
18°C 18%
17°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
5%
18°C
18%
19°C
46%
20°C
26%
21°C
4%
22°C
4%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 46%
20°C 26%
18°C 18%
17°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
14°C or below
$86 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$107 Vol.
1%
16°C
$0 Vol.
3%
17°C
$96 Vol.
5%
18°C
$561 Vol.
18%
19°C
$343 Vol.
46%
20°C
$1,027 Vol.
26%
21°C
$20 Vol.
4%
22°C
$0 Vol.
4%
23°C
$67 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$67 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northerly winds associated with a seasonal front are keeping Tokyo's overnight temperatures suppressed, with the Japan Meteorological Agency forecasting a minimum of 18°C on September 11 amid near-continuous showers and high humidity. Multiple model runs and observational data align on lows of 18–19°C, consistent with recent daily minima around 19–20°C amid above-normal precipitation this month. Trader consensus, reflected in the 43% implied probability on 19°C and 21.5% on 18°C, tracks these official guidance products closely, as resolution depends on the verified 24-hour minimum from Tokyo's primary station. Updated model runs overnight and final JMA briefings represent the last key inputs before market settlement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,375End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northerly winds associated with a seasonal front are keeping Tokyo's overnight temperatures suppressed, with the Japan Meteorological Agency forecasting a minimum of 18°C on September 11 amid near-continuous showers and high humidity. Multiple model runs and observational data align on lows of 18–19°C, consistent with recent daily minima around 19–20°C amid above-normal precipitation this month. Trader consensus, reflected in the 43% implied probability on 19°C and 21.5% on 18°C, tracks these official guidance products closely, as resolution depends on the verified 24-hour minimum from Tokyo's primary station. Updated model runs overnight and final JMA briefings represent the last key inputs before market settlement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,375End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent rain and northerly winds associated with a seasonal front are keeping Tokyo's overnight temperatures suppressed, with the Japan Meteorological Agency forecasting a minimum of 18°C on September 11 amid near-continuous showers and high humidity. Multiple model runs and observational data align on lows of 18–19°C, consistent with recent daily minima around 19–20°C amid above-normal precipitation this month. Trader consensus, reflected in the 43% implied probability on 19°C and 21.5% on 18°C, tracks these official guidance products closely, as resolution depends on the verified 24-hour minimum from Tokyo's primary station. Updated model runs overnight and final JMA briefings represent the last key inputs before market settlement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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