Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble runs indicate a minimum temperature of 19°C for Tokyo on September 10, supported by stable subtropical high pressure, light winds, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit nocturnal cooling while maintaining typical late-summer humidity levels. Historical September climatology for the city shows average daily minima near 20–22°C, with recent observational trends and regional sea-surface temperatures reinforcing the narrow range around 19°C. Trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability reflects this data convergence, though an unexpected frontal passage or model bias toward stronger radiational cooling could still shift the official reading to 18°C or lower before the daily minimum is finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 10?
19°C 96%
18°C 6%
17°C 1.0%
14°C or below <1%
$11,662 Vol.
$11,662 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
6%
19°C
96%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 96%
18°C 6%
17°C 1.0%
14°C or below <1%
$11,662 Vol.
$11,662 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
14°C or below
$94 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$732 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$2,598 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$690 Vol.
1%
18°C
$893 Vol.
6%
19°C
$2,252 Vol.
96%
20°C
$2,424 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,098 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$316 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$323 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$241 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble runs indicate a minimum temperature of 19°C for Tokyo on September 10, supported by stable subtropical high pressure, light winds, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit nocturnal cooling while maintaining typical late-summer humidity levels. Historical September climatology for the city shows average daily minima near 20–22°C, with recent observational trends and regional sea-surface temperatures reinforcing the narrow range around 19°C. Trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability reflects this data convergence, though an unexpected frontal passage or model bias toward stronger radiational cooling could still shift the official reading to 18°C or lower before the daily minimum is finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$11,662End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble runs indicate a minimum temperature of 19°C for Tokyo on September 10, supported by stable subtropical high pressure, light winds, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit nocturnal cooling while maintaining typical late-summer humidity levels. Historical September climatology for the city shows average daily minima near 20–22°C, with recent observational trends and regional sea-surface temperatures reinforcing the narrow range around 19°C. Trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability reflects this data convergence, though an unexpected frontal passage or model bias toward stronger radiational cooling could still shift the official reading to 18°C or lower before the daily minimum is finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,662End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble runs indicate a minimum temperature of 19°C for Tokyo on September 10, supported by stable subtropical high pressure, light winds, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit nocturnal cooling while maintaining typical late-summer humidity levels. Historical September climatology for the city shows average daily minima near 20–22°C, with recent observational trends and regional sea-surface temperatures reinforcing the narrow range around 19°C. Trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability reflects this data convergence, though an unexpected frontal passage or model bias toward stronger radiational cooling could still shift the official reading to 18°C or lower before the daily minimum is finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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