A sharp influx of cold polar air advected by strong southerly winds is driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 4–8 °C for Buenos Aires’ daily minimum on September 12. Official forecasts from regional models and agencies such as the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies will likely bottom out near 4–6 °C after daytime maxima hover around 10 °C, consistent with the 49 % probability attached to 4 °C or below and the 51.5 % on 6 °C. Persistent 20–30 km/h winds from the south enhance sensible-heat loss and limit boundary-layer warming, while variable cloud cover introduces the principal uncertainty separating the 7 °C and 8 °C outcomes. With the meteorological day concluding at local midnight, any late-evening clearing or slight forecast-model spread in low-level thickness could shift the realized minimum across the closely matched 49–56 % thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 12?
Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 12?
4°C or below 98%
5°C 98%
8°C 55%
6°C 52%
$581 Vol.
$581 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
4°C or below
98%
5°C
98%
6°C
52%
7°C
50%
8°C
55%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C or higher
<1%
4°C or below 98%
5°C 98%
8°C 55%
6°C 52%
$581 Vol.
$581 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
4°C or below
$0 Vol.
98%
5°C
$10 Vol.
98%
6°C
$0 Vol.
52%
7°C
$0 Vol.
50%
8°C
$95 Vol.
55%
9°C
$392 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$84 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
14°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A sharp influx of cold polar air advected by strong southerly winds is driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 4–8 °C for Buenos Aires’ daily minimum on September 12. Official forecasts from regional models and agencies such as the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies will likely bottom out near 4–6 °C after daytime maxima hover around 10 °C, consistent with the 49 % probability attached to 4 °C or below and the 51.5 % on 6 °C. Persistent 20–30 km/h winds from the south enhance sensible-heat loss and limit boundary-layer warming, while variable cloud cover introduces the principal uncertainty separating the 7 °C and 8 °C outcomes. With the meteorological day concluding at local midnight, any late-evening clearing or slight forecast-model spread in low-level thickness could shift the realized minimum across the closely matched 49–56 % thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$581End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A sharp influx of cold polar air advected by strong southerly winds is driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 4–8 °C for Buenos Aires’ daily minimum on September 12. Official forecasts from regional models and agencies such as the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies will likely bottom out near 4–6 °C after daytime maxima hover around 10 °C, consistent with the 49 % probability attached to 4 °C or below and the 51.5 % on 6 °C. Persistent 20–30 km/h winds from the south enhance sensible-heat loss and limit boundary-layer warming, while variable cloud cover introduces the principal uncertainty separating the 7 °C and 8 °C outcomes. With the meteorological day concluding at local midnight, any late-evening clearing or slight forecast-model spread in low-level thickness could shift the realized minimum across the closely matched 49–56 % thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$581End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...A sharp influx of cold polar air advected by strong southerly winds is driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 4–8 °C for Buenos Aires’ daily minimum on September 12. Official forecasts from regional models and agencies such as the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional indicate overnight radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies will likely bottom out near 4–6 °C after daytime maxima hover around 10 °C, consistent with the 49 % probability attached to 4 °C or below and the 51.5 % on 6 °C. Persistent 20–30 km/h winds from the south enhance sensible-heat loss and limit boundary-layer warming, while variable cloud cover introduces the principal uncertainty separating the 7 °C and 8 °C outcomes. With the meteorological day concluding at local midnight, any late-evening clearing or slight forecast-model spread in low-level thickness could shift the realized minimum across the closely matched 49–56 % thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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