Recent forecast model consensus from sources such as GFS places Paris's September 10 maximum near the long-term average of 22°C, with light northwesterly winds, high pressure near 1020 hPa, and partly cloudy conditions limiting daytime heating. This aligns with the market's 52% implied probability on 22°C and 22% on 21°C, reflecting trader assessment of stable post-frontal air masses after recent cooling. Models show minimal spread, with afternoon peaks projected at 21–22°C and low precipitation risk, while historical September 10 highs average 22.3°C. Updated runs from European and U.S. agencies over the next 48 hours represent the key data points that could shift these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on September 10?
Highest temperature in Paris on September 10?
22°C 52%
21°C 22%
23°C 11%
20°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
17°C or below
3%
18°C
3%
19°C
4%
20°C
6%
21°C
22%
22°C
52%
23°C
11%
24°C
4%
25°C
2%
26°C
1%
27°C or higher
1%
22°C 52%
21°C 22%
23°C 11%
20°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
17°C or below
$51 Vol.
3%
18°C
$51 Vol.
3%
19°C
$0 Vol.
4%
20°C
$20 Vol.
6%
21°C
$0 Vol.
22%
22°C
$117 Vol.
52%
23°C
$0 Vol.
11%
24°C
$18 Vol.
4%
25°C
$0 Vol.
2%
26°C
$3 Vol.
1%
27°C or higher
$25 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources such as GFS places Paris's September 10 maximum near the long-term average of 22°C, with light northwesterly winds, high pressure near 1020 hPa, and partly cloudy conditions limiting daytime heating. This aligns with the market's 52% implied probability on 22°C and 22% on 21°C, reflecting trader assessment of stable post-frontal air masses after recent cooling. Models show minimal spread, with afternoon peaks projected at 21–22°C and low precipitation risk, while historical September 10 highs average 22.3°C. Updated runs from European and U.S. agencies over the next 48 hours represent the key data points that could shift these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$284End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources such as GFS places Paris's September 10 maximum near the long-term average of 22°C, with light northwesterly winds, high pressure near 1020 hPa, and partly cloudy conditions limiting daytime heating. This aligns with the market's 52% implied probability on 22°C and 22% on 21°C, reflecting trader assessment of stable post-frontal air masses after recent cooling. Models show minimal spread, with afternoon peaks projected at 21–22°C and low precipitation risk, while historical September 10 highs average 22.3°C. Updated runs from European and U.S. agencies over the next 48 hours represent the key data points that could shift these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$284End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources such as GFS places Paris's September 10 maximum near the long-term average of 22°C, with light northwesterly winds, high pressure near 1020 hPa, and partly cloudy conditions limiting daytime heating. This aligns with the market's 52% implied probability on 22°C and 22% on 21°C, reflecting trader assessment of stable post-frontal air masses after recent cooling. Models show minimal spread, with afternoon peaks projected at 21–22°C and low precipitation risk, while historical September 10 highs average 22.3°C. Updated runs from European and U.S. agencies over the next 48 hours represent the key data points that could shift these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions