Persistent dry conditions and flash drought expansion across the South-Central U.S., parts of the Southeast, and northern New England have driven recent upgrades to D4 exceptional drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor, with isolated pockets now reported in Arkansas, North Carolina, and South Carolina as of early September 2026. These developments, fueled by prolonged rainfall deficits, record heat, and low streamflows, support the market's strong 79.5% implied probability on 10 or more states showing any D4 area in the week of September 15. The U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly Thursday release incorporates soil moisture percentiles, precipitation data, and expert assessment; traders appear to anticipate further degradation before seasonal relief potentially arrives later in the fall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 15, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 15, 2026?
10 or more states 80%
1-2 states 21%
7-9 states 20%
3-4 states 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
0 states
1%
1-2 states
21%
3-4 states
15%
5-6 states
15%
7-9 states
20%
10 or more states
80%
10 or more states 80%
1-2 states 21%
7-9 states 20%
3-4 states 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
0 states
$21 Vol.
1%
1-2 states
$0 Vol.
21%
3-4 states
$0 Vol.
15%
5-6 states
$0 Vol.
15%
7-9 states
$0 Vol.
20%
10 or more states
$0 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Persistent dry conditions and flash drought expansion across the South-Central U.S., parts of the Southeast, and northern New England have driven recent upgrades to D4 exceptional drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor, with isolated pockets now reported in Arkansas, North Carolina, and South Carolina as of early September 2026. These developments, fueled by prolonged rainfall deficits, record heat, and low streamflows, support the market's strong 79.5% implied probability on 10 or more states showing any D4 area in the week of September 15. The U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly Thursday release incorporates soil moisture percentiles, precipitation data, and expert assessment; traders appear to anticipate further degradation before seasonal relief potentially arrives later in the fall.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Volume
$21End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Persistent dry conditions and flash drought expansion across the South-Central U.S., parts of the Southeast, and northern New England have driven recent upgrades to D4 exceptional drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor, with isolated pockets now reported in Arkansas, North Carolina, and South Carolina as of early September 2026. These developments, fueled by prolonged rainfall deficits, record heat, and low streamflows, support the market's strong 79.5% implied probability on 10 or more states showing any D4 area in the week of September 15. The U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly Thursday release incorporates soil moisture percentiles, precipitation data, and expert assessment; traders appear to anticipate further degradation before seasonal relief potentially arrives later in the fall.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 15, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$21End Date
Sep 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent dry conditions and flash drought expansion across the South-Central U.S., parts of the Southeast, and northern New England have driven recent upgrades to D4 exceptional drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor, with isolated pockets now reported in Arkansas, North Carolina, and South Carolina as of early September 2026. These developments, fueled by prolonged rainfall deficits, record heat, and low streamflows, support the market's strong 79.5% implied probability on 10 or more states showing any D4 area in the week of September 15. The U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly Thursday release incorporates soil moisture percentiles, precipitation data, and expert assessment; traders appear to anticipate further degradation before seasonal relief potentially arrives later in the fall.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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