Trader consensus for Amsterdam's lowest temperature on September 15 clusters tightly around 15–17°C, reflecting ensemble guidance from ECMWF and other models showing a mild night under variable cloud cover and light southerly flow. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared with clearer autumn nights, keeping minimums above the seasonal 10–12°C average. Recent high-pressure dominance across northwest Europe has supported this warmer baseline, though small shifts in cloud timing or wind could alter outcomes by 1–2°C. Forecasters note typical model spread for 24-hour temperature predictions, with fresh runs expected overnight to refine the range before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 15?
11°C or below 94%
16°C 34%
17°C 28%
15°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
11°C or below
94%
12°C
8%
13°C
11%
14°C
20%
15°C
27%
16°C
34%
17°C
28%
18°C
19%
19°C
16%
20°C
7%
21°C or higher
1%
11°C or below 94%
16°C 34%
17°C 28%
15°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
11°C or below
$10 Vol.
94%
12°C
$10 Vol.
8%
13°C
$8 Vol.
11%
14°C
$0 Vol.
20%
15°C
$0 Vol.
27%
16°C
$0 Vol.
34%
17°C
$9 Vol.
28%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C
$0 Vol.
16%
20°C
$10 Vol.
7%
21°C or higher
$128 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus for Amsterdam's lowest temperature on September 15 clusters tightly around 15–17°C, reflecting ensemble guidance from ECMWF and other models showing a mild night under variable cloud cover and light southerly flow. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared with clearer autumn nights, keeping minimums above the seasonal 10–12°C average. Recent high-pressure dominance across northwest Europe has supported this warmer baseline, though small shifts in cloud timing or wind could alter outcomes by 1–2°C. Forecasters note typical model spread for 24-hour temperature predictions, with fresh runs expected overnight to refine the range before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$175End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus for Amsterdam's lowest temperature on September 15 clusters tightly around 15–17°C, reflecting ensemble guidance from ECMWF and other models showing a mild night under variable cloud cover and light southerly flow. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared with clearer autumn nights, keeping minimums above the seasonal 10–12°C average. Recent high-pressure dominance across northwest Europe has supported this warmer baseline, though small shifts in cloud timing or wind could alter outcomes by 1–2°C. Forecasters note typical model spread for 24-hour temperature predictions, with fresh runs expected overnight to refine the range before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$175End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus for Amsterdam's lowest temperature on September 15 clusters tightly around 15–17°C, reflecting ensemble guidance from ECMWF and other models showing a mild night under variable cloud cover and light southerly flow. These conditions limit radiative cooling compared with clearer autumn nights, keeping minimums above the seasonal 10–12°C average. Recent high-pressure dominance across northwest Europe has supported this warmer baseline, though small shifts in cloud timing or wind could alter outcomes by 1–2°C. Forecasters note typical model spread for 24-hour temperature predictions, with fresh runs expected overnight to refine the range before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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