**Forecast consensus from multiple numerical weather models (including ECMWF, GFS, and regional outputs) points to a daily maximum of 29–30°C in Shanghai on September 14, 2026, under stable high-pressure conditions with northeast winds of 5–11 mph, low humidity around 50–60%, and minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk.** This aligns with the market's leading outcomes: 29°C at 55.5% implied probability and 28°C at 33%, reflecting the tight clustering of model guidance around these values. Shanghai's humid subtropical climate in mid-September typically features gradual seasonal cooling after summer peaks, with current observations (around 28–29°C on September 12) and short-range forecasts showing little deviation due to absent typhoon activity or frontal systems. The lower probability for 30°C (7%) accounts for minor upside uncertainty in afternoon heating or model spread, while probabilities drop sharply outside 27–31°C given the narrow expected range. With resolution in two days, traders are weighting the latest model runs and official guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration, where small revisions in steering patterns or insolation could still shift the exact maximum within the 28–30°C band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 14?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 14?
29°C 55%
28°C 33%
30°C 7%
27°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
5%
28°C
33%
29°C
55%
30°C
7%
31°C
3%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 55%
28°C 33%
30°C 7%
27°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
24°C or below
$40 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$141 Vol.
5%
28°C
$291 Vol.
33%
29°C
$928 Vol.
55%
30°C
$106 Vol.
7%
31°C
$112 Vol.
3%
32°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$63 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple numerical weather models (including ECMWF, GFS, and regional outputs) points to a daily maximum of 29–30°C in Shanghai on September 14, 2026, under stable high-pressure conditions with northeast winds of 5–11 mph, low humidity around 50–60%, and minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk.**
This aligns with the market's leading outcomes: 29°C at 55.5% implied probability and 28°C at 33%, reflecting the tight clustering of model guidance around these values. Shanghai's humid subtropical climate in mid-September typically features gradual seasonal cooling after summer peaks, with current observations (around 28–29°C on September 12) and short-range forecasts showing little deviation due to absent typhoon activity or frontal systems.
The lower probability for 30°C (7%) accounts for minor upside uncertainty in afternoon heating or model spread, while probabilities drop sharply outside 27–31°C given the narrow expected range. With resolution in two days, traders are weighting the latest model runs and official guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration, where small revisions in steering patterns or insolation could still shift the exact maximum within the 28–30°C band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,800End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from multiple numerical weather models (including ECMWF, GFS, and regional outputs) points to a daily maximum of 29–30°C in Shanghai on September 14, 2026, under stable high-pressure conditions with northeast winds of 5–11 mph, low humidity around 50–60%, and minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk.**
This aligns with the market's leading outcomes: 29°C at 55.5% implied probability and 28°C at 33%, reflecting the tight clustering of model guidance around these values. Shanghai's humid subtropical climate in mid-September typically features gradual seasonal cooling after summer peaks, with current observations (around 28–29°C on September 12) and short-range forecasts showing little deviation due to absent typhoon activity or frontal systems.
The lower probability for 30°C (7%) accounts for minor upside uncertainty in afternoon heating or model spread, while probabilities drop sharply outside 27–31°C given the narrow expected range. With resolution in two days, traders are weighting the latest model runs and official guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration, where small revisions in steering patterns or insolation could still shift the exact maximum within the 28–30°C band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,800End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from multiple numerical weather models (including ECMWF, GFS, and regional outputs) points to a daily maximum of 29–30°C in Shanghai on September 14, 2026, under stable high-pressure conditions with northeast winds of 5–11 mph, low humidity around 50–60%, and minimal cloud cover or precipitation risk.** This aligns with the market's leading outcomes: 29°C at 55.5% implied probability and 28°C at 33%, reflecting the tight clustering of model guidance around these values. Shanghai's humid subtropical climate in mid-September typically features gradual seasonal cooling after summer peaks, with current observations (around 28–29°C on September 12) and short-range forecasts showing little deviation due to absent typhoon activity or frontal systems. The lower probability for 30°C (7%) accounts for minor upside uncertainty in afternoon heating or model spread, while probabilities drop sharply outside 27–31°C given the narrow expected range. With resolution in two days, traders are weighting the latest model runs and official guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration, where small revisions in steering patterns or insolation could still shift the exact maximum within the 28–30°C band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions