Forecast models from sources including the Met Office, ECMWF-influenced runs, and GFS consensus indicate Shanghai’s minimum temperature on September 14 will occur overnight under clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeast winds of 2–5 m/s, and surface pressure near 1019 hPa. These conditions favor moderate radiative cooling, producing a low most likely between 22–24 °C, with the tightest clustering around 23 °C. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical overnight minima near 20 °C, but the current stable high-pressure regime and absence of frontal systems or moisture advection have kept readings several degrees above average. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to 23 °C, reflecting the narrow spread across ensemble guidance and the limited time remaining for model shifts before the observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 14?
23°C 52%
24°C 43%
21°C 7%
22°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
3%
21°C
7%
22°C
6%
23°C
52%
24°C
43%
25°C
4%
26°C
3%
27°C
3%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
23°C 52%
24°C 43%
21°C 7%
22°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
19°C or below
$100 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$0 Vol.
3%
21°C
$0 Vol.
7%
22°C
$838 Vol.
6%
23°C
$1,594 Vol.
52%
24°C
$2,112 Vol.
43%
25°C
$322 Vol.
4%
26°C
$0 Vol.
3%
27°C
$0 Vol.
3%
28°C
$223 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$100 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Met Office, ECMWF-influenced runs, and GFS consensus indicate Shanghai’s minimum temperature on September 14 will occur overnight under clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeast winds of 2–5 m/s, and surface pressure near 1019 hPa. These conditions favor moderate radiative cooling, producing a low most likely between 22–24 °C, with the tightest clustering around 23 °C. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical overnight minima near 20 °C, but the current stable high-pressure regime and absence of frontal systems or moisture advection have kept readings several degrees above average. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to 23 °C, reflecting the narrow spread across ensemble guidance and the limited time remaining for model shifts before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$5,289End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Met Office, ECMWF-influenced runs, and GFS consensus indicate Shanghai’s minimum temperature on September 14 will occur overnight under clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeast winds of 2–5 m/s, and surface pressure near 1019 hPa. These conditions favor moderate radiative cooling, producing a low most likely between 22–24 °C, with the tightest clustering around 23 °C. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical overnight minima near 20 °C, but the current stable high-pressure regime and absence of frontal systems or moisture advection have kept readings several degrees above average. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to 23 °C, reflecting the narrow spread across ensemble guidance and the limited time remaining for model shifts before the observation window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,289End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including the Met Office, ECMWF-influenced runs, and GFS consensus indicate Shanghai’s minimum temperature on September 14 will occur overnight under clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeast winds of 2–5 m/s, and surface pressure near 1019 hPa. These conditions favor moderate radiative cooling, producing a low most likely between 22–24 °C, with the tightest clustering around 23 °C. Historical September climatology for the region shows typical overnight minima near 20 °C, but the current stable high-pressure regime and absence of frontal systems or moisture advection have kept readings several degrees above average. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to 23 °C, reflecting the narrow spread across ensemble guidance and the limited time remaining for model shifts before the observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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