Recent global and regional model runs, including GFS and ECMWF guidance, indicate a highest temperature near 22–24°C for Istanbul on September 16, moderated by northeasterly flow and variable cloud cover that limits daytime heating. These conditions align with September climatology of roughly 24–25°C average highs while introducing modest downward bias from potential light precipitation and elevated humidity tied to Black Sea influences. Ensemble spreads highlight genuine uncertainty around exact maxima, with outcomes hinging on precise steering patterns and boundary-layer mixing. Traders appear to weight the lower end of model guidance more heavily, consistent with skin-in-the-game assessment of short-range forecast variability ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 16?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 16?
22°C 47%
23°C 40%
25°C 39%
18°C or below 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
18°C or below
38%
19°C
7%
20°C
18%
21°C
32%
22°C
34%
23°C
40%
24°C
6%
25°C
39%
26°C
4%
27°C
5%
28°C or higher
10%
22°C 47%
23°C 40%
25°C 39%
18°C or below 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 16, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
38%
19°C
$0 Vol.
7%
20°C
$0 Vol.
18%
21°C
$0 Vol.
32%
22°C
$12 Vol.
34%
23°C
$0 Vol.
40%
24°C
$0 Vol.
6%
25°C
$0 Vol.
39%
26°C
$0 Vol.
4%
27°C
$0 Vol.
5%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent global and regional model runs, including GFS and ECMWF guidance, indicate a highest temperature near 22–24°C for Istanbul on September 16, moderated by northeasterly flow and variable cloud cover that limits daytime heating. These conditions align with September climatology of roughly 24–25°C average highs while introducing modest downward bias from potential light precipitation and elevated humidity tied to Black Sea influences. Ensemble spreads highlight genuine uncertainty around exact maxima, with outcomes hinging on precise steering patterns and boundary-layer mixing. Traders appear to weight the lower end of model guidance more heavily, consistent with skin-in-the-game assessment of short-range forecast variability ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$12End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent global and regional model runs, including GFS and ECMWF guidance, indicate a highest temperature near 22–24°C for Istanbul on September 16, moderated by northeasterly flow and variable cloud cover that limits daytime heating. These conditions align with September climatology of roughly 24–25°C average highs while introducing modest downward bias from potential light precipitation and elevated humidity tied to Black Sea influences. Ensemble spreads highlight genuine uncertainty around exact maxima, with outcomes hinging on precise steering patterns and boundary-layer mixing. Traders appear to weight the lower end of model guidance more heavily, consistent with skin-in-the-game assessment of short-range forecast variability ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global and regional model runs, including GFS and ECMWF guidance, indicate a highest temperature near 22–24°C for Istanbul on September 16, moderated by northeasterly flow and variable cloud cover that limits daytime heating. These conditions align with September climatology of roughly 24–25°C average highs while introducing modest downward bias from potential light precipitation and elevated humidity tied to Black Sea influences. Ensemble spreads highlight genuine uncertainty around exact maxima, with outcomes hinging on precise steering patterns and boundary-layer mixing. Traders appear to weight the lower end of model guidance more heavily, consistent with skin-in-the-game assessment of short-range forecast variability ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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